Based on Bureau of Economic Analysis tables 2.8.5 and 2.8.4 (real PCE levels and PCE price indexes), the figures below capture the inflation-adjusted growth in spending across goods and services. Percent changes are shown for the latest month (June), year-to-date (YTD), and the most recent 12-month period (Year Ending, YE).
N.B: this is 100% real consumption while retail sales are that of a sector that represents 47-49% of total. consumption!
Real PCE Growth by Major Type of Product
| Category | Month | YTD | Year Ending |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total PCE | +2.11 % | +2.57 % | +2.81 % |
| Goods | |||
| Durable goods | +3.49 % | +5.05 % | +4.86 % |
| Motor vehicles & parts | +7.08 % | +6.59 % | +4.98 % |
| Furnishings & durable household equipment | +1.10 % | +4.73 % | +5.15 % |
| Recreational goods & vehicles | +2.19 % | +5.32 % | +5.38 % |
| Other durable goods | +1.84 % | +1.24 % | +2.92 % |
| Nondurable goods | +2.66 % | +2.82 % | +2.50 % |
| Food & beverages | +1.28 % | +1.68 % | +1.64 % |
| Clothing & footwear | +4.17 % | +3.62 % | +2.56 % |
| Gasoline & other energy goods | +1.68 % | +1.59 % | +1.08 % |
| Other nondurable goods | +3.66 % | +3.92 % | +3.65 % |
| Services | |||
| Total services | +1.73 % | +2.11 % | +2.58 % |
| Housing & utilities | +0.98 % | +1.40 % | +1.18 % |
| Health care | +4.68 % | +4.50 % | +5.18 % |
| Transportation services | −2.30 % | +1.42 % | +2.46 % |
| Recreation services | −0.27 % | +0.36 % | +1.07 % |
| Food services & accommodations | +1.51 % | +0.99 % | +0.86 % |
| Financial services & insurance | +2.47 % | +1.94 % | +2.29 % |
| Other services | +2.25 % | +2.47 % | +2.60 % |
Key Takeaways
- Across-the-board strength: Real spending is positive on a YTD and 12-month basis in every major category, underscoring continued consumer resilience.
- Durables rebound: Healthy gains in motor vehicles, furnishings, and recreational goods point to renewed big-ticket confidence.
- Health-centric behavior: A near 5 % jump in real health-care outlays signals a structural shift toward wellbeing after the pandemic.
Macro & Policy Implications
With consumption driving roughly two-thirds of GDP, today’s data confirm that underlying demand remains robust despite elevated interest rates. A rate-cutting cycle would:
- Lower household debt-service burdens, freeing up disposable income for additional spending or investment.
- Reduce Federal interest outlays, easing deficit pressure and potentially supporting risk assets.
Yesterday’s Personal Income release also highlighted rising Medicare and Medicaid transfers. While these transfers are an expense to government, they directly bolster domestic producers of health-related goods and services, adding another tailwind to the sector.