Despite persistent media narratives emphasizing uncertainty and fragility, real consumption data present a far more constructive picture. According to official data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) , specifically Personal Income Table 2.4.6U (Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chained Dollars), full-year (YTD to … [Read more...] about The U.S. Consumer Is Stronger Than the Headlines Suggest
Consumption
Mid-Price Consumption vs High-Priced AI and the Limits of Tariff Policy
1) The Consumer Has Not Disappeared — But the Price Point Has Changed U.S. consumption is not collapsing in physical terms. Volumes remain relatively stable. What has changed is the price sensitivity of the consumer. Retail data shows a clear concentration toward medium- to medium-low-priced goods and services. … [Read more...] about Mid-Price Consumption vs High-Priced AI and the Limits of Tariff Policy
July 2025 BLS Employment Reports Real Wage Gains
July 2025 BLS Employment Report: Real Wage Gains Underpin U.S. Consumption Monthly and year-ending figures show broad, inflation-adjusted growth in average weekly earnings, reinforcing the spending power that supports the economy. Why Real Earnings Matter The jump in the headline unemployment rate from 4.1 % to 4.2 % is statistically negligible. What drives … [Read more...] about July 2025 BLS Employment Reports Real Wage Gains
June 2025 PCE Update – U.S. Real Consumption Snapshot
U.S. Real Consumption Snapshot – June 2025 PCE Update Based on Bureau of Economic Analysis tables 2.8.5 and 2.8.4 (real PCE levels and PCE price indexes), the figures below capture the inflation-adjusted growth in spending across goods and services. Percent changes are shown for the latest month (June), year-to-date (YTD), and the most recent 12-month … [Read more...] about June 2025 PCE Update – U.S. Real Consumption Snapshot
Employment‑Driven Consumption: What’s Really Propping Up the Data?
Overall consumption is being sustained by real income growth at the aggregate level, thanks chiefly to continued gains in total employment. On a per‑capita basis, however, households remain cautious: spending per worker is subdued; it’s simply the larger number of workers that keeps the retail figures afloat. None of this is new, which is why recent retail‑sector data came in … [Read more...] about Employment‑Driven Consumption: What’s Really Propping Up the Data?