Employment Report April 2026: Real earnings, labor-force weakness, tariffs, CPI pressure, and the risk of a policy mistake. Employment Report April 2026: A Warning Bell for the System The April employment data shows a clear negative signal beneath the surface. The policy of expulsions is now reflected in employment data, with the number of employed workers … [Read more...] about Employment Report April 2026: Real Earnings, Tariffs, CPI Pressure, and Fed Risk
Employment
Preliminary Employment Report – March 2026
Eco / CPI The breakeven point for the March CPI increase, on a month-on-month basis, to bring weekly earnings to zero in real terms is +1.3% versus the previous month, equivalent to roughly 15.6% annualized. That is an exceptionally high value. With a CPI figure at that level, real weekly earnings would be as follows: Single Real … [Read more...] about Preliminary Employment Report – March 2026
Employment Report Preview: Cooling Labor, Negative Real Wages, and a System Under Pressure
A softer labor market may not offer relief if March CPI overwhelms wage growth and deepens pressure on consumption, GDP, and public finances. Labor Market Cooling, but the Main Issue Is Employment The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly to 4.5% from 4.4%, signaling a further, modest cooling of the labor market. That, however, is not the … [Read more...] about Employment Report Preview: Cooling Labor, Negative Real Wages, and a System Under Pressure
February 2026 Employment Report: BLS Data Shows a Largely Positive Outcome for Consumption and Labor Stability
The February 2026 U.S. employment report delivers a largely positive signal when examined directly through BLS data. The analysis can be divided into two parts: first, the monetary side through real average weekly earnings, and second, the numerical side through raw NSA labor data. Taken together, the report suggests that household income remains supportive of consumption, … [Read more...] about February 2026 Employment Report: BLS Data Shows a Largely Positive Outcome for Consumption and Labor Stability
Friday NFP Employment Data, Inflation Pressures, and Market Logic
Yesterday, the market radar highlighted that the upcoming employment data would likely become a key catalyst for market movement. Below is our assessment prior to the release of the employment report and the broader implications for markets and the economic system. Labor Market: Cooling but Still Stable February employment … [Read more...] about Friday NFP Employment Data, Inflation Pressures, and Market Logic
January employment data Strong Jobs Report Likely to Keep the Fed on Hold
January employment data confirms strong hiring, real wage growth, and solid consumption. Analysis of CPI base effects and implications for Federal Reserve rate policy. Employment Report Confirms System Strength The latest employment report confirms our forecasts. The data is clearly positive and indicates that the economic … [Read more...] about January employment data Strong Jobs Report Likely to Keep the Fed on Hold
U.S. Macro Snapshot: Retail Sales, Import Prices, Real Wages, and Unemployment rate range
1) Retail Sales: Consumption Is Still There, but the Mix Has Changed The key message from recent retail sales trends is not that consumption is collapsing in physical terms, but that households are increasingly concentrating spending on medium- to medium-low-priced goods and services. In other words: volumes can hold up, while consumers … [Read more...] about U.S. Macro Snapshot: Retail Sales, Import Prices, Real Wages, and Unemployment rate range
December 2025 Employment Data: A Labor Market Still Supporting Consumption
The December 2025 employment data confirms the presence of a solid economic system capable of supporting consumption, despite interest rates remaining too high. To properly evaluate this strength and the risks ahead, employment must be analyzed through multiple time horizons. Analytical Framework Employment and earnings data should be … [Read more...] about December 2025 Employment Data: A Labor Market Still Supporting Consumption
Markets Await Employment Data and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
The market is entering a critical juncture, focused on two near-term catalysts: the upcoming employment data and the Supreme Court’s decision on the legitimacy of tariffs. Together, these factors will shape expectations for growth, rates, and capital flows. 1. Employment: Solid but Clearly Cooling The labor market remains resilient, but … [Read more...] about Markets Await Employment Data and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Preliminary Comment on the Employment Report – November 2025
Focus: Employment Report November 2025, Monetary conditions, real earnings, and market reaction Monetary Aspect: Real Earnings The November 2025 employment data shows that average daily earnings are still rising in real terms, despite a noticeable decline in the total number of employees compared with previous months. One-Month Change … [Read more...] about Preliminary Comment on the Employment Report – November 2025