The December 2025 employment data confirms the presence of a solid economic system capable of supporting consumption,
despite interest rates remaining too high. To properly evaluate this strength and the risks ahead, employment must be
analyzed through multiple time horizons.
Analytical Framework
Employment and earnings data should be interpreted across two key dimensions:
- Medium-long term (10 years) to establish a structural comparison.
- Medium-short term (2–3 years) to identify recent distortions that may affect the coming months.
The analysis focuses on real WKL earnings, which represent the real purchasing power of the first flow
of money entering the economic system. The data is examined for:
- Single private employees
- Total private employees
- Monthly and year-ending measures
Medium-Long Term (10 Years) – Monthly Data
Single Private Employees
Over the last decade, real purchasing power for single private employees has remained positive.
While volatility increased during and after the Covid period, the overall trend continues to show resilience.
Total Private Employees
At the aggregate level, total private employees display a similar trajectory, with real earnings stabilizing
following the post-Covid adjustment.
Medium-Long Term (10 Years) – Year-Ending Data
Single Private Employees
On a year-ending basis, purchasing power remains positive and only slightly below the 2015–2019 expansion period.
This gap is largely explained by higher interest rates and a higher CPI deflator over the last three years.
Total Private Employees
Total private employment confirms this trend, indicating that the system has absorbed the post-pandemic shock
without a structural loss in real purchasing power.
Medium-Short Term (2 Years) – Year-Ending Data
Total Private Employees
Over the last two years, real purchasing power for total private employees has remained positive,
although it has gradually declined. This softening is closely linked to a rising unemployment rate
and tighter financial conditions.
The 2024–2025 period highlights this deceleration more clearly: the system continues to grow,
but at a slower and more fragile pace.
Key Fragilities
- Employment stability: Maintaining unemployment below the 4.5–4.7% range is critical
to preserving consumption capacity. - Interest rates and CPI: High interest rates continue to affect the CPI deflator.
Maintaining average CPI around 2.3–2.5% in 2026 is a realistic and achievable objective.
Conclusion
The labor market remains economically sound and capable of sustaining consumption.
While short-term vulnerabilities are emerging—mainly through higher unemployment and restrictive
financial conditions—the system is slowing rather than breaking. Current risks appear contained
and manageable heading into the coming months.