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Fed Rates

September 2026 CPI: Energy Inflation Squeezes Consumers and Complicates Fed Policy

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U.S. inflation accelerated in September, putting household purchasing power and the cost of further monetary tightening back at the centre of the economic debate. The important question is how much income remains after consumers pay for essential goods, services and borrowing costs. Key conclusions Headline CPI increased 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year, according to … [Read more...] about September 2026 CPI: Energy Inflation Squeezes Consumers and Complicates Fed Policy

The Fed Hike Is Done: What Comes Next for Markets in September 2026?

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After the Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, oil, diesel, Treasury yields and late-September economic data became the next market drivers. The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate increase was already largely priced in. The unanimous vote and higher projected rate path shifted attention toward the persistence of inflation and the possibility of further tightening. … [Read more...] about The Fed Hike Is Done: What Comes Next for Markets in September 2026?

The Fed’s Rate Hike May Be Priced In—Oil Will Decide What Comes Next

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The latest 25-basis-point increase may already be largely reflected in Treasury yields, mortgage rates and business borrowing costs. The real question is whether oil-driven inflation will persist and lead markets to price another rate hike—and whether higher rates can do anything about the source of that inflation. The Rate Hike May Already Be Priced In There is little value … [Read more...] about The Fed’s Rate Hike May Be Priced In—Oil Will Decide What Comes Next

Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story

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A September Federal Reserve rate hike is now firmly priced into financial markets, although the FOMC has not yet announced its decision. Short-term Treasury yields have already moved above the Federal Reserve’s current target range, while rate futures indicate a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting. This distinction matters. Higher … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story

August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?

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The August 2026 CPI report could deliver an important contrast: energy and household borrowing costs moved higher during the month, yet a favorable year-over-year comparison may still allow headline inflation to edge lower. The official U.S. Consumer Price Index for August is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. … [Read more...] about August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?

Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh’s Higher-Rate Warning Leaves the Debt Question Unanswered

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Jackson Hole 2026 produced a monetary-policy doctrine, but it did not produce a solution. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his clearest warning yet that rates may have to rise if inflation does not move back toward the Fed’s 2% target “clearly and at sufficient speed.” Yet he stopped short of recommending an immediate increase, offered no forward … [Read more...] about Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh’s Higher-Rate Warning Leaves the Debt Question Unanswered

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, July 2026: Shadows and Bright Spots Coexist

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U.S. personal income and spending data for July 2026 confirm an economy in which shadows and bright spots are not taking turns—they are coexisting. Real wage growth has weakened, income from assets has lost purchasing power and households have drawn heavily on savings. At the same time, transfer receipts and lower personal taxes are supporting disposable income, while … [Read more...] about U.S. Personal Income and Spending, July 2026: Shadows and Bright Spots Coexist

The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said

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The dominant media story was a divided Federal Reserve, three dissents and a chairman offering few answers. That framing misses the substance of the July decision. The Fed held rates steady because commodity-driven inflation, already-restrictive market yields and fragile real purchasing power require more judgment than an automatic rate increase. Much of the post-meeting … [Read more...] about The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said

AI Earnings vs. Oil, Tariffs and the Fed: The Market Catalysts Traders Must Watch

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Market outlook for July 21, 2026: The AI and semiconductor trade remains the principal force behind the Nasdaq and S&P 500, but Middle East energy risk, tariffs and rising bond yields are setting the limits. The next two weeks contain enough earnings, economic data and central-bank decisions to determine whether the recent chip sell-off becomes a broader correction, a … [Read more...] about AI Earnings vs. Oil, Tariffs and the Fed: The Market Catalysts Traders Must Watch

The Real Bombshell: Rates, War Costs, and Systemic Risk

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Beyond geopolitical headlines, wars, and strategic choke points, the true risk to markets is not a single event—but the convergence of forces building beneath the surface. The Real Bomb Droppers: The Federal Reserve Forget the visible conflict zones. The real bombshell is not dropped on a battlefield—it is delivered through monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve acts to raise … [Read more...] about The Real Bombshell: Rates, War Costs, and Systemic Risk

Federal Reserve March 2026 Announcement Report – Fed Wednesday

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Federal funds rate decision, FOMC statement, economic projections, press conference summary, and cross-asset market reaction Release date: Wednesday, March 18, 2026 Scheduled releases: 14:00 ET (Eastern Time) Federal Funds Rate, 14:00 ET (Eastern Time) FOMC Economic Projections, 14:00 ET (Eastern Time) FOMC Statement, 14:30 ET (Eastern Time) FOMC Press Conference … [Read more...] about Federal Reserve March 2026 Announcement Report – Fed Wednesday

January employment data Strong Jobs Report Likely to Keep the Fed on Hold

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January employment data confirms strong hiring, real wage growth, and solid consumption. Analysis of CPI base effects and implications for Federal Reserve rate policy. Employment Report Confirms System Strength The latest employment report confirms our forecasts. The data is clearly positive and indicates that the economic … [Read more...] about January employment data Strong Jobs Report Likely to Keep the Fed on Hold

December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper

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The December CPI release is expected to validate what markets are already signaling: the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut exists formally, but not functionally. Neither the most recent cut nor the previous ones have translated into real-world financial conditions. 1. 13-Week Treasury Bill: The Fed’s Own Rule Is Not Met Historically, … [Read more...] about December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper

December Fed Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakness, and the Hidden Stress on US Debt and Trade

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The first market reaction to the rate cut has been anything but benign. Immediate Market Reaction: USD Devaluation The first observable effect of the rate cut has been clearly negative through the currency channel. The EUR/USD moved from 1.1690 to 1.1745 between November 21 (11:22) and December 11 (01:46), marking a … [Read more...] about December Fed Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakness, and the Hidden Stress on US Debt and Trade

Fed Cuts 25 bps: A Political Move, and the Market Calls It “No News”

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Fed’s 25 bps Cut: A Political Decision, a Neutral Market Reaction, and a Shift for Short-Term Liquidity December 10, 2025 A Predictable Cut with Limited Systemic Impact The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate cut as widely expected. The conditions for a classic easing cycle were not present, making this a political move rather … [Read more...] about Fed Cuts 25 bps: A Political Move, and the Market Calls It “No News”

The Market Is Asleep: Waiting for a Policy Cut That Still Has No Real Conditions

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Wednesday 14:00 - High USD Federal Funds Rate Wednesday 14:00 - High USD FOMC Economic Projections Wednesday 14:00 - High USD FOMC Statement Wednesday 14:30 - High USD FOMC Press Conference Fed Funds Rate - Fed Wed! Sideways before the news We enter another quiet session with the market drifting in a semi-sleepwalk, awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next … [Read more...] about The Market Is Asleep: Waiting for a Policy Cut That Still Has No Real Conditions

The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment

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The Federal Reserve begins its December conclave today, with conclusions expected on Wednesday, 10 December 2025. Despite the media dramatization surrounding the meeting, the outcome is largely predetermined: a 25 basis point rate cut that is political rather than economic in nature. Why This Cut Is Not Economically Justified Under classic macroeconomic conditions—barring … [Read more...] about The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment

The Market Hangover: Why December’s Rate Cut Is Political

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Why December’s Rate Cut Is Political, Not Effective The market is staggering forward in a kind of speculative drunkenness. Headlines paint a simple story of “Fed cuts = market boost,” but the reality underneath tells a very different tale. The system is entering a hangover phase where political moves, short-term speculation, and structural constraints collide with hard … [Read more...] about The Market Hangover: Why December’s Rate Cut Is Political

Why the Latest Fed Rate Cut Was Political: A Clear Real-World Example

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No significant rate cut offered - debt, bond auction appetite, trade war inflation and politics shape the macro view Treasury auctions and market demand set the pace, and the Fed usually confirms what the market has already priced. The November 13 Treasury auction provides a perfect, up-to-date example showing why the most recent Fed rate cut was not driven by … [Read more...] about Why the Latest Fed Rate Cut Was Political: A Clear Real-World Example