Tariffs redirected trade, raised the cost of imported inputs and triggered a legal and fiscal reversal—but they did not end globalisation. Research updated: August 7, 2026 The short verdict: Donald Trump’s tariffs changed corporate behaviour, reduced direct US dependence on China and accelerated investment in a few strategic American industries. As a broad … [Read more...] about Trump Tariffs Verdict 2026: Did the Trade War Work?
Trade Tariffs
AI Earnings vs. Oil, Tariffs and the Fed: The Market Catalysts Traders Must Watch
Market outlook for July 21, 2026: The AI and semiconductor trade remains the principal force behind the Nasdaq and S&P 500, but Middle East energy risk, tariffs and rising bond yields are setting the limits. The next two weeks contain enough earnings, economic data and central-bank decisions to determine whether the recent chip sell-off becomes a broader correction, a … [Read more...] about AI Earnings vs. Oil, Tariffs and the Fed: The Market Catalysts Traders Must Watch
The New Tariff Refund Portal Is Live — and It Could Open a Fiscal Stress Point for the U.S. System
A new U.S. Customs and Border Protection refund process went live on Monday, April 20, 2026, allowing businesses to begin filing for refunds tied to IEEPA tariffs that were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. The process is live, but the money is not yet out the door. That is exactly why this matters. A small event on the surface, a large risk underneath … [Read more...] about The New Tariff Refund Portal Is Live — and It Could Open a Fiscal Stress Point for the U.S. System
US Trade Balance 2025: Tariffs, Shifting Partners, and a Self-Regulating System
Source: BEA Official Data – 2025 vs 2024 (Y/Y) Headline Numbers The 2025 trade balance remains negative, but shows a modest improvement compared to 2024. Below are the year-over-year differences in million USD and percentage terms. Balance Total: +2,064 (+0.23%) Goods: -25,538 (+2.10%) Services: +27,600 (+8.85%) … [Read more...] about US Trade Balance 2025: Tariffs, Shifting Partners, and a Self-Regulating System
Industrial Production and Tariff Policy: A System That Does Not Automatically Adjust
The stated objectives of the tariff increase were essentially two: Discourage American production abroad (globalized production). Incentivize domestic production by increasing the price of imported goods and services. However, recent Industrial Production data suggest that the transmission mechanism between … [Read more...] about Industrial Production and Tariff Policy: A System That Does Not Automatically Adjust
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Limits of Tariff-Driven Reindustrialization
Industrial Production: The Real Test Beyond CPI, retail sales, and employment, there is another crucial indicator for understanding the true direction of the U.S. economy: Industrial Production. If the objective is to restructure and relaunch a domestic industrial system that has been deeply integrated into global supply chains for decades, the … [Read more...] about Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Limits of Tariff-Driven Reindustrialization
CPI January 2026 – Tariffs Begin to Show Their Weight
Headline Surprise vs. Forecast Our forecast for January 2026 CPI was +0.25% month-over-month, equivalent to roughly 3.00%–3.04% annualized, explicitly stated as “subject to the effects of the tariff increase.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) instead reported +0.38% month-over-month, equivalent to 4.56%–4.65% … [Read more...] about CPI January 2026 – Tariffs Begin to Show Their Weight
US Treasury Budget FY 2025–2026: Deficit Improvement Driven Primarily by Tariffs
US Treasury Budget FY 2025–2026: Deficit Improvement Driven Primarily by Tariffs, but At this time the Treasury Budget is not able to return even 1 dollar of the extra revenue from custom duties, unless it resorts to a further increase in the Deficit by issuing Debt... Fiscal Year: October 2025 – September 2026 Deficit Comparison: FY 25–26 vs. FY 24–25 October … [Read more...] about US Treasury Budget FY 2025–2026: Deficit Improvement Driven Primarily by Tariffs
Terms of Trade (TOT),Tariffs, and Dollar Devaluation: What the Data Is Showing
Terms of Trade, Tariffs, and the Structural Reality of Globalization Official data review – December 2024 to December 2025 What Are Terms of Trade (TOT)? Terms of Trade (TOT) represent the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. It measures how many units of exports are required to purchase a single unit of imports. … [Read more...] about Terms of Trade (TOT),Tariffs, and Dollar Devaluation: What the Data Is Showing
Mid-Price Consumption vs High-Priced AI and the Limits of Tariff Policy
1) The Consumer Has Not Disappeared — But the Price Point Has Changed U.S. consumption is not collapsing in physical terms. Volumes remain relatively stable. What has changed is the price sensitivity of the consumer. Retail data shows a clear concentration toward medium- to medium-low-priced goods and services. … [Read more...] about Mid-Price Consumption vs High-Priced AI and the Limits of Tariff Policy
Markets Await Employment Data and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
The market is entering a critical juncture, focused on two near-term catalysts: the upcoming employment data and the Supreme Court’s decision on the legitimacy of tariffs. Together, these factors will shape expectations for growth, rates, and capital flows. 1. Employment: Solid but Clearly Cooling The labor market remains resilient, but … [Read more...] about Markets Await Employment Data and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Another Sign That America Is in Disarray via Politics and Perception 2025 is full of promises, can 2026 deliver?
2025 Promises of growth, missing capital, and a system running on narratives rather than data - will 2026 deliver?. Colossal Tech Investments: Announced, Not Delivered...Yet The wave of billion-dollar technology investments announced by major U.S. companies remains largely theoretical. To date, there is no visible deployment of … [Read more...] about Another Sign That America Is in Disarray via Politics and Perception 2025 is full of promises, can 2026 deliver?
How Have Tariffs Worked So Far?
A year-to-date assessment — and why tariffs helped the Treasury but as yet not the system If you look at the year-to-date (YTD) data, the message is fairly clear: higher tariffs have not worked so far. However, the reason is not just the outcome, but the structure and timing of the data itself. … [Read more...] about How Have Tariffs Worked So Far?