October’s inflation signals are mixed. U.S. gasoline prices have eased from September’s monthly average, and daily mortgage rates have retreated from month-end levels. Yet diesel’s latest weekly increase and still-elevated borrowing costs argue against declaring that inflation pressure has disappeared. There is also an unusual complication for the next CPI report: missing … [Read more...] about October Inflation Outlook: Cooling Fuel Prices, Wider Mortgage Spreads and a CPI Base-Effect Trap
Oil & Energy Markets
A New Energy Geography Emerges in the Wake of the Hormuz Crisis
The Hormuz crisis is reshaping the geography of energy. Exporters are investing in pipelines, coastal terminals and storage facilities to reduce their dependence on a narrow maritime passage. But replacing a concentrated network with a more resilient one carries a substantial construction, operating and security bill. For energy-importing economies, the concern extends beyond … [Read more...] about A New Energy Geography Emerges in the Wake of the Hormuz Crisis
September PPI: Oil, Diesel and the Next Inflation Wave
The inflation pressure running through petroleum extraction, refining, and diesel deserves closer attention than a single monthly headline. A January–September comparison of unadjusted producer-price indexes reveals a sharp divide between petroleum, utilities, agricultural inputs and technology—and helps identify where pressure could reach corporate margins and household … [Read more...] about September PPI: Oil, Diesel and the Next Inflation Wave
High Crude oil prices to stay but forward contracts say lower
Oil producers need revenue, but the futures market is pricing a different timetable. Saudi Arabia has endured a sharp disruption to its export routes during the US–Israel–Iran conflict. Yet the September 24 Brent and WTI futures curves put a substantial premium on oil delivered this winter compared with oil delivered in June 2027. The question for traders is whether that … [Read more...] about High Crude oil prices to stay but forward contracts say lower