Focus: Employment Report November 2025, Monetary conditions, real earnings, and market reaction
Monetary Aspect: Real Earnings
The November 2025 employment data shows that average daily earnings are still rising in
real terms, despite a noticeable decline in the total number of employees compared
with previous months.
One-Month Change (November 2025)
| Category | Single Employee | Total Employees |
|---|---|---|
| Non-supervisory | +0.81% | +1.84% |
| Supervisory | -0.80% | -0.97% |
| Total | +0.15% | +0.98% |
Two-Year Change (Year Ending November 2025)
| Category | Single Employee | Total Employees |
|---|---|---|
| Non-supervisory | +1.09% | +2.13% |
| Supervisory | +0.65% | -0.49% |
| Total | +0.88% | +1.69% |
Overall, the data remains positive from an earnings perspective, even as employment
growth weakens.
Two Key Elements Still Supporting the Market
1. Employment Level
The unemployment rate remains relatively stable in the 4.3–4.4% range.
This level represents a critical threshold. A sustained move above it would likely
have severe consequences for confidence and market stability. The situation is not
yet critical, but it is becoming increasingly delicate.
2. Inflation (CPI)
CPI is currently running at 2.9–3.0% year-on-year. In practical terms,
it would need to fall closer to 2.5% to justify a more aggressive
easing cycle. It is difficult to imagine wages continuing to grow at rates above
4% annually without reigniting inflationary pressures.
Market Reaction: Indifference as a Signal
The market’s muted response to the employment data highlights two important dynamics:
- Total uncertainty, combined with a strong desire not to fall and an
equally strong difficulty in rising, given the accumulation of doubts emphasized
by the media. - A clear focus on defending current financial earnings and attempting
to extract marginal gains over the next two weeks, rather than reacting to the
underlying macroeconomic signals.
Structural issues are being deferred. For now, positioning and earnings preservation
take priority.
Looking Ahead: CPI as the Next Catalyst
Tomorrow’s CPI release is important because it directly influences expectations for
actual interest rate cuts. In my view, a meaningful reduction in rates remains unlikely
in the short term, as CPI is expected to remain in the 2.8–3.0% range
year-on-year.
A Final Note on AI and Employment
One positive consideration is that large-scale deployment of AI across corporate
functions is not yet fully operational. While AI will almost certainly lead to job
losses over time, this is not today’s problem, and perhaps not even a concern for the
next year.
For now, traditional macro forces—employment levels, inflation, and monetary policy—
remain the dominant drivers.