The U.S. Consumer Is Stronger Than the Headlines Suggest

1. Real Personal Consumption: Multi-Year Expansion

Year-over-Year % Change (Real Data)

• 2025 vs 2024: +2,651
• 2024 vs 2023: +2,948
• 2023 vs 2022: +2,566

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) represent approximately 62–66% of GDP.
These figures confirm that household demand remains a powerful engine of growth.

Breakdown by Major Category

• Goods: +3,198 | +2,831 | +1,728
• Durable Goods: +3,520 | +3,874 | +3,813
• Non-Durable Goods: +3,024 | +2,276 | +0.624
• Services: +2,396 | +3,003 | +2,981

Strength is evident across both goods and services, reflecting broad-based demand.

The Structural Leaders of Consumption

1. Durable Goods – Technology Investment

For three consecutive years, technology-related durable goods have demonstrated
consistent momentum. Both businesses and households continue investing in
digital infrastructure and productivity tools.

• Information processing equipment: +7,879 | +10,594 | +15,103
• Personal computers, tablets & peripherals: +9,162 | +10,838 | +13,554
• Computer software & accessories: +7,291 | +10,482 | +15,832
• Calculators & processing equipment: +11,112 | +8,734 | +17,814
• Communication equipment: +12,645 | +14,933 | +19,135

The sustained investment cycle suggests adaptation and modernization,
not retrenchment.

2. Non-Durable Goods – Healthcare

• Pharmaceutical & medical products: +6,248 | +4,913 | +6,410
• Prescription drugs: +6,266 | +4,943 | +6,484

3. Services – Healthcare & Telecommunications

• Outpatient services: +4,999 | +7,217 | +7,693
• Paramedical services: +6,766 | +10,383 | +9,635
• Hospital & nursing home services: +4,051 | +3,841 | +4,676
• Cellular telephone services: +8,966 | +5,944 | +5,475

Discretionary Spending: A Confidence Indicator

Growth in discretionary categories typically reflects consumer confidence
and financial stability.

• Clothing & footwear: +6.04%
• Games, toys & hobbies: +8,192
• Personal care products: +4,101
• Cosmetics & related products: +5,048
• Gambling: +8,061 (Lotteries +20,571)
• Foreign travel by U.S. residents: +6,818

These increases support retail, leisure, and entertainment sectors,
reinforcing the narrative of ongoing demand strength.

Areas of Weakness: The Auto Sector

The primary weakness remains concentrated in motor vehicles.

• New autos: −8,408 | −13,108
• New domestic autos: −12,213 | −17,122
• New foreign autos: −1,789 | −5,110
• Used autos: −4,703
• Cable & satellite television services: −10.30 | −8.632

The auto sector has faced structural and cyclical headwinds.
Policy adjustments have not yet reversed this decline.

Q4 Analysis: Stability Despite Headwinds

Q4 2025 included a one-month government shutdown that affected
a significant portion of public employment. Even so,
consumption remained firm.

• Personal Consumption Expenditures: +2,216 | +3,364
• Goods: +1,343 | +4,231
• Durable Goods: −0.127 | +6,980
• Non-Durable Goods: +0.624 | +2,276
• Services: +2,981 | +3,003

Growth moderated compared to 2024 but did not collapse.
The structural trend remains positive.

Q4 Leaders Confirmed

• Information processing equipment: +15,103 | +10,594
• Computer software: +15,832 | +10,482
• Pharmaceutical products: +5.64 | +4.53
• Healthcare services: +4.99 | +5.03
• Lotteries: +22.68
• Clothing & footwear: +5,991

Conclusion: A Resilient Consumption Engine

1. Real data confirm solid consumption growth, particularly in technology
   and healthcare.
2. Continued tech investment supports a constructive earnings outlook,
   though elevated expectations may create short-term volatility.
3. Tariffs have slightly dampened traditional sectors but have not
   materially weakened aggregate consumption.

The broader conclusion is clear: the U.S. consumer remains resilient.
Real data point to continued expansion in 2025, supporting a
constructive market outlook.