Stock futures steady; Alphabet, Microsoft report Wednesday after close, Amazon Thursday after close — Market Radar 20261026

VIX — Market Fear Gauge Daily

VIX fell 3.23% from the session's opening level. VIX rose 2.21% versus the previous session close. Expected volatility eased from the period open. VIX is 62.1% up the recent 15-session range (14.77–22.31), in the 60–70% band.

VR: ATN Volatility Ratio (VR): 4.23 – Stocks fell while expected volatility rose. VR is in the lower part of its preceding 15-session VR range (-2.03 to 41.30), in the 10–20% band. VR fell 7.70 points from the previous session, a moderate shift relative to that range.

Range lookback: preceding 15 completed sessions.

Major ETFs and Mega Cap Tech Stocks

• U.S. stock futures were broadly steady to recovering following last week’s technology rout.
• Neocloud stocks fell after Elon Musk warned of widespread failures and consolidation amid tightening AI financing conditions.
• Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon earnings previews emphasized capital spending, free cash flow, and access to financing.
• Amazon’s cloud revenue growth and increased capital spending featured prominently in coverage ahead of its October 29 earnings.
• SpaceX rose after strong third-quarter results and bullish analyst revisions, while separate coverage highlighted heavy investment requirements and insider share-sale eligibility beginning October 26.
• Goldman Sachs cut its Korean market target by 25%, citing lower AI valuation multiples and increased volatility.
• Verizon raised its full-year outlook and announced an AI agreement with Amazon worth more than $2 billion.
• Meta announced a new non-voting Class C common stock effective January 2027.

ETF, Mag7, and Cross-Market ETF prior day Insights

Overall Tone
The October 23, 2026 daily session showed selective gains from the open but broadly weaker prior-close comparisons, leaving risk tone cautious.

Major index ETFs — prior day: 2026-10-23

Instrument	Bias	Date	DNC%	DOC%	O	H	L	C	VWAP	Vol
▲ IWM	▼ ▲ ▲	2026-10-23	▼ -0.33%	▲ +0.33%	274.85	276.24	273.35	275.75	▲ 275.29	20,819,392
▲ QQQ	▼ ▲ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.01%	▲ +0.31%	702.20	709.30	701.16	704.40	▼ 705.42	29,638,600
▲ IJH	▼ ▲ ▲	2026-10-23	▼ -0.59%	▲ +0.06%	72.33	72.62	71.87	72.37	▲ 72.35	5,355,035
▲ SPY	▼ ▲ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.52%	▲ +0.01%	759.90	763.47	758.68	759.97	▼ 760.77	33,112,524
▼ DIA	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -1.24%	▼ -0.26%	522.74	523.70	519.88	521.37	▼ 522.02	2,857,655
AVG/Sum	—	—	-0.54%	+0.09%	—	—	—	—	—	91,783,206

Index ETFs
Mixed: average DOC% +0.09% from the open, DNC% -0.54% versus the prior close. Four of five index ETFs gained from the open, led by IWM and QQQ; SPY was near-flat and DIA lagged, while all five fell versus the prior close. IWM and IJH closed above VWAP, unlike the larger-cap funds.

IWM · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.33% OC% ▲ +0.33%

IWM – Small Cap Technicals Summary

IWM's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 275.75, down 0.33% from the previous close but up 0.33% from the open. The intraday rebound left the opening gap lower unfilled, yet produced a close near the day's high and above session VWAP. A lower high and lower low still marked the session, and the close stayed inside the previous day's range.

That recovery has not resolved the broader conflicts. Price is above a falling near-term average, below a falling intermediate-term average, and below a slightly rising far-term average. The 15-session trend remains downward with limited net directional progress. Both range and volume were below average; the smaller range opposed the expanding lookback trend, while lighter volume matched declining participation. PSAR remains bullish, but a next-session low below 270.6379 would trigger a bearish reversal.

QQQ · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.01% OC% ▲ +0.31%

QQQ – Nasdaq 100 Technicals Summary

QQQ's completed daily session on October 23 ended at 704.4, essentially unchanged from the prior close but up 0.31% from the open. The opening gap lower was filled, although the close remained marginally below the prior-close reference. A lower high and lower low, together with a finish below session VWAP, temper the positive open-to-close performance. The close remained inside the previous day's range.

The near-term downtrend and declining 15-session price trend contrast with a still-rising far-term structure. Price also remains below a rising intermediate average, leaving that horizon mixed rather than positively aligned. The latest range and volume were below their prior 15-session averages, opposing the broader expansion in ranges and increase in participation. PSAR remains bearish; a next-session high above 722.592 would trigger a bullish reversal, not establish one in the completed session.

IJH · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.59% OC% ▲ +0.06%

IJH – Mid Cap Technicals Summary

IJH's completed daily session on October 23 finished at 72.37, down 0.59% versus the prior close despite gaining 0.06% from the open. The small intraday gain did little to offset an opening gap lower that remained unfilled. Trading crossed both sides of the open and ended just above session VWAP, while a lower high and lower low preserved a weaker daily structure.

Near- and intermediate-term downtrends remain aligned, with price below falling averages. The far-term average still rises, but price is beneath it, leaving that horizon mixed rather than confirming strength. The prior 15-session price path showed almost no net directional efficiency, indicating substantial back-and-forth movement. The latest range was slightly below average despite an expanding range trend, and below-average volume matched the softer lookback volume direction. A high above 73.6015 next session would conditionally reverse bearish PSAR.

SPY · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.52% OC% ▲ +0.01%

SPY – S&P 500 Technicals Summary

SPY's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 759.97, down 0.52% from the previous close but virtually unchanged from the open. The loss was therefore concentrated in an opening gap lower that remained unfilled. Trading on both sides of the open produced a lower high and lower low, with the finish beneath the previous day's low and session VWAP.

Near-term weakness persists within a rising far-term structure. The intermediate average is also rising, but price is below it, leaving that horizon mixed. Across the prior 15 sessions, directional efficiency was almost zero, showing little net progress relative to the back-and-forth movement. The latest range and volume were below average despite expanding ranges and increasing volume over that window. PSAR is in a short state; a next-session high above 774.44 would conditionally trigger a bullish reversal.

DIA · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -1.24% OC% ▼ -0.26%

DIA – Dow Jones Technicals Summary

DIA's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 521.37, losing 1.24% against the prior close but only 0.26% from the open. Most of the decline therefore occurred in the opening gap, which remained unfilled. The session added a lower high and lower low and finished below the previous day's low and session VWAP, leaving the intraday recovery attempts unable to repair the initial weakness.

That decline interrupts a rising 15-session price trend without overturning the far-term uptrend. Shorter horizons are conflicted: price is below a rising near-term average but above a falling intermediate-term average. The day's range was below average despite expanding ranges over the lookback, while subdued volume matched the broader declining volume trend. PSAR remains in a short state; a next-session high above 528.45 would trigger a bullish reversal only if reached.

Mag7 stocks — prior day: 2026-10-23

Instrument	Bias	Date	DNC%	DOC%	O	H	L	C	VWAP	Vol
▲ MSFT	▲ ▲ ▲	2026-10-23	▲ +0.66%	▲ +1.31%	517.75	525.77	515.70	524.51	▲ 523.31	13,396,359
▲ META	▼ ▲ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.96%	▲ +0.70%	638.17	648.04	633.27	642.62	▼ 643.25	14,706,091
▼ NVDA	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.59%	▼ -0.01%	210.99	213.85	210.18	210.96	▼ 211.91	78,096,384
▼ TSLA	▼ ▼ ▲	2026-10-23	▼ -0.63%	▼ -0.26%	373.20	377.32	365.27	372.22	▲ 371.86	34,782,708
▼ GOOGL	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -1.24%	▼ -0.29%	321.14	324.53	320.18	320.21	▼ 321.89	17,590,246
▼ AMZN	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.95%	▼ -0.34%	248.85	250.01	246.45	248.00	▼ 248.45	25,419,607
▼ AAPL	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.14%	▼ -0.40%	349.12	351.73	345.75	347.73	▼ 348.03	40,020,875
AVG/Sum	—	—	-0.55%	+0.10%	—	—	—	—	—	224,012,270

Mag7 Stocks
Mixed: average DOC% +0.10% from the open, DNC% -0.55% versus the prior close. Microsoft led the two open-to-close gainers, ahead of Meta, while Apple lagged; Microsoft alone gained versus the prior close. Apple retained rising moving-average structures across horizons despite its decline, while Nvidia’s near-term weakness contrasted with its longer-term uptrend.

MSFT · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▲ +0.66% OC% ▲ +1.31%

MSFT – Microsoft Technicals Summary

MSFT's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 524.51, up 0.66% from the previous close and 1.31% from the open. The stronger open-to-close gain reflects a recovery from an opening gap lower, which was filled. Price finished near the session high and above VWAP, although the day still recorded a lower high and lower low and closed inside the previous day's range.

The rebound fits rising intermediate- and far-term structures, but price remains below its rising near-term average, leaving incomplete alignment. The prior 15-session advance also showed limited directional efficiency, suggesting considerable back-and-forth trading. The day's range was close to average despite a broader expansion trend, while volume was roughly two-thirds of average, consistent with declining lookback participation. PSAR remains bearish; a next-session high above 536.9257 would trigger a bullish reversal only conditionally.

META · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.96% OC% ▲ +0.70%

META – Meta Platforms Technicals Summary

META's completed daily session on October 23 ended at 642.62, down 0.96% from the prior close even after rising 0.70% from the open. The recovery only partially offset a substantial opening gap lower, which remained unfilled. The session made a lower high and lower low, and its close stayed inside the previous day's range but slightly below session VWAP, limiting the strength of the intraday rebound.

The near-term trend remains downward, while price below a rising intermediate average leaves that horizon mixed. The far-term structure is still rising, with price above its benchmark, so recent weakness has not aligned all horizons bearishly. The day's range and volume were below their prior 15-session averages despite expanding ranges and increasing volume over that window. PSAR remains bearish; a next-session high above 711.4497 would conditionally trigger a bullish reversal.

NVDA · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.59% OC% ▼ -0.01%

NVDA – Nvidia Technicals Summary

NVDA's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 210.96, down 0.59% from the prior close but almost unchanged from the open. The opening gap lower was filled intraday, yet the recovery faded. A lower high and lower low accompanied a finish near the session low, below the previous day's low and session VWAP, making the flat open-to-close result less reassuring than it first appears.

Near-term weakness matches the declining 15-session price trend. Intermediate signals remain mixed because price is below a rising average, while the far-term uptrend persists with price still above its benchmark. The latest range was below average despite expanding lookback ranges, and lighter volume was consistent with the declining volume trend. PSAR has turned bearish; a next-session high above 221.5895 would be needed to trigger a conditional bullish reversal.

TSLA · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.63% OC% ▼ -0.26%

TSLA – Tesla Technicals Summary

TSLA's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 372.22, down 0.63% from the prior close and 0.26% from the open. Its opening gap lower was filled, but the session still produced a lower high and lower low and finished beneath the previous day's low. The close was slightly above session VWAP, providing a modest counterpoint to the negative daily structure rather than confirming broader strength.

Trend alignment remains fragmented. Price is just below a rising near-term average, above a rising intermediate average, and below a falling far-term average. The latest range was above average, matching the prior 15-session expansion and marking a second consecutive large-range session. Volume, however, was slightly below average despite an increasing lookback trend. PSAR remains bullish; a next-session low below 355.0618 would trigger a bearish reversal only if breached.

GOOGL · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -1.24% OC% ▼ -0.29%

GOOGL – Alphabet Technicals Summary

GOOGL's completed daily session on October 23 ended at 320.21, down 1.24% from the prior close and 0.29% from the open. The opening gap lower was filled during trading, but that recovery did not last. The day registered a lower high and lower low and closed near its low, beneath both the previous day's low and session VWAP.

The latest weakness fits the declining 15-session price trend and aligned near- and far-term downtrends. The intermediate horizon is conflicted rather than bullishly aligned: its average is still rising, but price remains below it. Range and volume were both well below their prior 15-session averages, opposing the lookback's expanding ranges and increasing volume. Thus, the latest decline occurred with reduced activity rather than an acceleration in participation. A next-session high above 340.199 would conditionally reverse the bearish PSAR state.

AMZN · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.95% OC% ▼ -0.34%

AMZN – Amazon Technicals Summary

AMZN's completed daily session on October 23 ended at 248, down 0.95% from the previous close and 0.34% from the open. The opening gap lower remained unfilled. A lower high and lower low, followed by a close beneath the previous day's low and session VWAP, left the latest day's price action weak despite its relatively contained trading range.

The broader structure is less uniform. Price sits below rising near- and intermediate-term averages, creating mixed signals, while remaining only slightly above the rising far-term benchmark. The prior 15-session price trend was marginally upward but made very little net directional progress. Both range and volume were substantially below average in the latest session, contrasting with their expanding and increasing lookback trends. PSAR is in a downtrend; a next-session high above 264.3953 would conditionally trigger a bullish reversal.

AAPL · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.14% OC% ▼ -0.40%

AAPL – Apple Technicals Summary

AAPL's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 347.725, down 0.14% from the prior close and 0.40% from the open. The opening gap higher was filled, and trading on both sides of the open ended below session VWAP. Although the day produced a higher high and higher low, the close returned inside the previous day's range, showing that the early strength did not hold.

This daily setback contrasts with aligned near-, intermediate- and far-term uptrends, with price still above rising averages across all three horizons. The session's range and volume were both modestly above their prior 15-session averages, consistent with expanding ranges and increasing volume over that lookback. The existing PSAR uptrend remains intact; a next-session low below 341.41 would trigger a bearish reversal rather than confirm one now.

Cross-market ETFs — prior day: 2026-10-23

Instrument	Bias	Date	DNC%	DOC%	O	H	L	C	VWAP	Vol
▲ USO	▲ ▲ ▲	2026-10-23	▲ +4.32%	▲ +2.02%	166.17	169.96	166.04	169.53	▲ 168.13	6,331,989
▼ IBIT	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.22%	▼ -0.48%	46.18	46.41	45.81	45.96	▼ 46.12	22,744,158
▼ TLT	▼ ▼ ▼	2026-10-23	▼ -0.49%	▼ -0.54%	81.78	81.80	81.27	81.34	▼ 81.44	34,576,600
▼ GLD	▼ ▼ ▲	2026-10-23	▼ -0.65%	▼ -0.63%	368.94	369.25	364.33	366.61	▲ 366.59	9,921,237
AVG/Sum	—	—	+0.74%	+0.09%	—	—	—	—	—	73,573,984

Cross-Market ETFs
Positive confluence: average DOC% +0.09% from the open, DNC% +0.74% versus the prior close. Oil alone rose on both comparisons, gaining 2.02% from the open and 4.32% versus the prior close, with aligned uptrends and above-average volume. Bonds, gold and bitcoin fell alongside equities rather than diverging positively.

USO · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▲ +4.32% OC% ▲ +2.02%

USO – Oil Technicals Summary

USO's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 169.53, up 4.32% from the previous close and 2.02% from the open. The distinction reflects a substantial opening gap higher that remained unfilled, followed by further intraday gains. The session made a higher high and higher low and finished near its high, above both the previous day's high and session VWAP.

This advance reinforces aligned near-, intermediate- and far-term uptrends, with price above rising averages across all horizons. Volume was about 38% above its prior 15-session average, consistent with increasing lookback participation. The daily range was slightly below average despite the broader expansion trend, distinguishing the gap-driven total gain from the intraday range. The close was just below the 52-week high. A next-session low below 159.856 would conditionally reverse the bullish PSAR state.

Oil News and Fundamentals

Oil reached five-month highs on October 23, with Brent futures reported up 2.7% at $116.26 a barrel and headed for a weekly gain exceeding 10%. Reports linked gains to falling U.S. crude inventories and Middle East supply risks. Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port, an oil field and an airport. Kpler said Gulf crude flows had largely recovered to roughly 24 million barrels daily, but refined-product flows remained 50% below pre-war levels.

IBIT · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.22% OC% ▼ -0.48%

IBIT – Bitcoin Technicals Summary

IBIT's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 45.96, down 0.22% from the prior close and 0.48% from the open. An initial gap higher was filled, and the close finished near the day's low and below session VWAP. Nevertheless, the session formed a higher high and higher low and remained inside the previous day's range at the close, making the daily structure less uniformly negative than the return alone suggests.

Near-term weakness continues against rising intermediate- and far-term averages, with price barely above the intermediate benchmark. The latest range was below average, consistent with the prior 15-session contraction in ranges. Volume was also subdued, unlike its modestly increasing lookback trend. PSAR still indicates an uptrend despite the weaker near-term average structure; a next-session low below 45.71 would trigger a bearish reversal.

TLT · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.49% OC% ▼ -0.54%

TLT – Long-Term Treasury Bonds Technicals Summary

TLT's completed daily session on October 23 finished at 81.34, down 0.49% from the prior close and 0.54% from the open. A small opening gap higher was filled, and the session ended near its low and below VWAP. The entire day's range remained inside the previous day's range, framing the decline as a contained pullback rather than a fresh expansion in daily price movement.

The near-term trend remains upward, consistent with the rising prior 15-session price trend, but the far-term average still falls with price beneath it. Price is above a falling intermediate average, leaving that horizon mixed. Range and volume were both below average despite modestly expanding ranges and increasing volume in the lookback. The existing bullish PSAR state remains intact; a next-session low below 80.252 would conditionally trigger a bearish reversal.

Treasury Bonds News and Fundamentals

The 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply on October 22 amid reported signs that debt issuance from AI hyperscalers may be easing. Investors expressed hope that the Treasury market’s decline was finding a bottom, although yields remained elevated.

GLD · D:2026-10-23 NC% ▼ -0.65% OC% ▼ -0.63%

GLD – Gold Technicals Summary

GLD's completed daily session on October 23 closed at 366.61, down 0.65% from the previous close and 0.63% from the open. The nearly unchanged opening level gave way to a lower high and lower low, with the close below the prior day's low. It finished only fractionally above session VWAP, so that positive VWAP position offers little contrast to the otherwise negative daily structure.

Near-, intermediate- and far-term trends are aligned downward, with price beneath falling averages throughout. The latest session's range was about 35% above its prior 15-session average, breaking against the lookback's contracting range trend, while above-average volume accompanied an already increasing volume trend. This was also the second consecutive large-range session. PSAR is bearish; a next-session high above 383.8525 would be required to trigger its conditional bullish reversal.

Gold News and Fundamentals

Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce on October 23, extending its weekly decline. Reports attributed pressure to rising oil prices, inflation concerns, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and liquidations during Thursday’s technology-led stock selloff. Prices weakened despite U.S. 10-year Treasury yields falling below 5%. October’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was 48, above the 46.3 consensus forecast, while inflation expectations rose. The Fed’s October 28 decision is the next identified catalyst.

Glossary: Instrument — ticker symbol; hover for the instrument or company name; Date — session date. DNC% — prior-session close to this session’s close; DOC% — daily session open-to-close percentage change. O — open; H — high; L — low; C — close, all for the table’s daily or weekly session; VWAP — volume-weighted average price; its arrow shows whether the close is above or below VWAP. Vol — period trading volume.

Bias — three directional readings, in order: DNC%, DOC%, then VWAP. ▲ positive/above; ▼ negative/below; — neutral or unavailable. Matching arrows show alignment; opposing arrows show mixed conditions. AVG/Sum — simple average of percentage changes and sum of reported volumes.

Futures Session Fib Grid Analysis – Snapshot

Session Fib Grids normalise market positioning as percentages, making direction and alignment comparable across different asset types.

Latest available snapshot for each instrument; Time(CT) shows the individual update date and time.

Glossary: YSFG — yearly; MSFG — monthly; WSFG — weekly; RSFG — regular trading hours (RTH); SFG — the current session, including pre-market or other sessions. TSI indicates trend strength and power.

Bias shows trend alignment across these six readings. The arrows follow the column order: YSFG, MSFG, WSFG, RSFG, SFG and TSI. Matching arrows show alignment; opposing arrows show mixed conditions.

Futures Higher Time Frame Analysis

Summary of the current state of US Indices Futures based on higher time-frame (HTF) technical analysis as of: 2026-10-26 07:16 -05:00 CT.

US Indices Futures

• ES YSFG upward, MSFG below F0%, WSFG unspecified, daily benchmarks breached through 100-day, pivots down, support 7648.50/7575.00, resistance 7809.00/7906.25.
• NQ YSFG/WSFG upward, MSFG below F0%, rising 200-day benchmark, pivots down, support 28987.00/28437.50, resistance 30102.50/31618.50.
• YM YSFG/MSFG/WSFG upward, daily benchmarks mixed, weekly pivots down, support 51970/50859, resistance 53168/53688/55316.
• EMD YSFG/MSFG/WSFG upward, below all daily benchmarks, pivots down, support 3600.3–3604.1, reversal threshold 3705.9, resistance 3737.8/3825.3.
• RTY YSFG upward, MSFG below F0%, WSFG unspecified, below declining 20–200-day benchmarks, pivots down, support 2723.0–2723.3, resistance 2803.7/2887.2.
• FDAX YSFG/MSFG above F0%, WSFG below F0%, below 5/10/55/100-day benchmarks, pivots down, support 25119–24897, reversal threshold 25725, resistance 25833/25990.

Overall State

• Short-Term: Bearish
• Intermediate-Term: Neutral
• Long-Term: Bullish

Conclusion

Downward short-term pivot structures correlate across all six instruments, while yearly grids retain upward structure. ES, NQ, and RTY have MSFG readings below F0%; YM, EMD, and FDAX retain upward monthly grids. YM shows relative intermediate-term strength, while EMD and RTY have bearish daily long-term ratings despite bullish weekly structures. ES and FDAX recent short signals align with pullbacks; EMD weekly long signals contrast with its daily decline. Rising longer-period weekly benchmarks support the broader advance, but daily benchmark weakness and overhead pivot resistance maintain timeframe divergence.

Note: Intra-day counter-trend pullbacks or retracements may occur, HTF is context for informational usage and market structure. Glossary: Session Fib Grids periods of YSFG:’Yearly’, MSFG:’Monthly’, WSFG:’Weekly’

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