Monthly and year-ending figures show broad, inflation-adjusted growth in average weekly earnings, reinforcing the spending power that supports the economy.
Why Real Earnings Matter
The jump in the headline unemployment rate from 4.1 % to 4.2 % is statistically negligible. What drives demand is purchasing power: the first “monetary mass” that reaches households through wages. Tracking real (chained-dollar) average weekly earnings tells us how much spending capacity workers actually gain or lose after inflation.
July 2025 — Month-on-Year Change in Real Average Weekly Earnings
| Sector | Single Employee % Y/Y | Total Category % Y/Y |
|---|---|---|
| Total private | +1.42 | +2.44 |
| Goods-producing | +1.49 | +1.25 |
| Mining & logging | +0.66 | −0.44 |
| Construction | +1.60 | +2.66 |
| Manufacturing | +1.18 | +0.17 |
| Durable goods | +1.33 | +0.01 |
| Nondurable goods | +1.56 | +1.03 |
| Private service-providing | +1.29 | +2.40 |
| Trade, transportation & utilities | +1.48 | +1.91 |
| Wholesale trade | +0.52 | +0.72 |
| Retail trade | +2.46 | +2.69 |
| Transportation & warehousing | +2.13 | +3.17 |
| Utilities | −0.72 | +0.29 |
| Information | +2.97 | +2.95 |
| Financial activities | +2.34 | +3.32 |
| Professional & business services | +2.41 | +2.00 |
| Private education & health services | −0.05 | +3.15 |
| Leisure & hospitality | +1.64 | +2.95 |
| Other services | +0.77 | +0.12 |
Year-Ending July 2025 — Real Average Weekly Earnings
| Sector | Single Employee % Y/Y | Total Category % Y/Y |
|---|---|---|
| Total private | +1.09 | +2.11 |
| Goods-producing | +1.54 | +1.43 |
| Mining & logging | −1.13 | −2.09 |
| Construction | +1.32 | +2.51 |
| Manufacturing | +1.77 | +0.87 |
| Durable goods | +2.34 | +1.14 |
| Nondurable goods | +0.90 | +0.50 |
| Private service-providing | +1.01 | +2.24 |
| Trade, transportation & utilities | +0.59 | +1.14 |
| Wholesale trade | +0.31 | +0.64 |
| Retail trade | +0.63 | +0.99 |
| Transportation & warehousing | +0.48 | +1.64 |
| Utilities | +0.65 | +1.81 |
| Information | +3.14 | +3.24 |
| Financial activities | +1.98 | +3.08 |
| Professional & business services | +2.03 | +1.75 |
| Private education & health services | +0.15 | +3.48 |
| Leisure & hospitality | +1.14 | +2.57 |
| Other services | +0.44 | +1.47 |
Consumption Outlook
Both the monthly snapshot and the year-ending view remain firmly positive, indicating that wage-funded consumption is on solid footing. Year-ending real earnings for single employees climbed +1.09 %, an improvement of 43 basis points from December 2024. Notably, the Trade, Transportation & Utilities super-sector—historically a drag—has swung convincingly into positive territory. Meanwhile, weak Mining numbers reflect automation rather than soft demand.
The takeaway: U.S. consumption is not running on purely speculative exuberance but on genuine income growth, keeping recession risks at bay despite a modest uptick in unemployment.