December 31 2025 Trader Market Radar – NYSE Pre-Market Session

SPY Weekly View

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Holiday Radar

• 2026-01-01 New Year’s Day

Earnings Radar

Monitoring for earnings releases by the Magnificent 7, AI-tech-related firms, and major financial institutions.

No monitored earnings reports are pending in the next 7 days.

For full details visit: Yahoo Earnings Calendar

EcoNews Radar U.S. Events

EcoNews Summary

• 08:30 – USD Unemployment Claims (High Impact): The weekly unemployment claims release is expected to be the primary driver of pre-market volatility. Higher-than-expected claims may signal labor market weakness, potentially pressuring U.S. equity indices, while lower-than-expected readings could boost risk sentiment and support futures.
• 10:30 – USD Crude Oil Inventories (Low Impact): While typically a medium-to-low impact event, any significant surprise in oil inventories can move crude prices and, by extension, impact sectors sensitive to oil costs and inflation expectations.

EcoNews Conclusion

• Market attention will be focused on the labor data as a key indicator for economic strength and forward guidance on monetary policy.
• Any notable inventory drawdown in the oil release could support higher oil prices, potentially increasing inflationary pressures and weighing on market indices.
• News events around the 10 AM time cycle often act as a catalyst for reversals or continuations in index futures volatility and direction.
• High oil prices can have a direct impact on the market due to inflation and geopolitical concerns, making the oil inventory release relevant for indices traders.

Market News Summary

• Equities: U.S. stocks ended 2025 near all-time highs, supported by manageable tariff impacts and strong tech sector growth driven by AI advances. Despite a late-year fade in a “Santa Rally,” the market maintained robust performance. Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined over several sessions on thin holiday volume, with investor sentiment sliding into neutral territory. Analysts anticipate that the bull market will extend into 2026, backed by innovation and resilient sectors such as health care and energy.
• Sector Rotation: Tech and data storage firms like Western Digital surged in 2025, while energy stocks attracted attention for their resilience amid falling crude prices. Dividend-paying stocks, especially in health care, gained traction with investors seeking stability. The “Dogs of the Dow” strategy gained focus for its quality stock filtering.
• Interest Rates & Fed Policy: The Federal Reserve ended the year divided on future rate cuts, as reflected in recent meeting minutes. Some forecasters predict up to four rate cuts in early 2026, prompted by rising unemployment and corporate layoffs, though dissension among policymakers has increased uncertainty for market participants.
• Commodities: Gold and silver held strong after rallying to record highs, underpinned by safe-haven demand and expectations of rate cuts. Volatility remains, but technical structure for precious metals is bullish. Oil, however, posted its largest annual decline since 2020, down more than 10% due to oversupply overriding persistent geopolitical risks. Natural gas and crude outlooks remain cautious heading into 2026.
• Asia & Frontier Markets: The AFC Asia Frontier Fund reached a new high for net asset value with double-digit gains, notably at low P/E ratios and strong earnings growth.
• AI & Technology: Debate continues over whether the rapid expansion in AI investment constitutes a bubble. While some skepticism persists, the consensus is that only time will tell how sustainable the current AI-driven rally is.
• Market Risks: Discussions around earnings warnings and elevated estimates of crash probabilities reflect some caution, though most retail and analyst sentiment remains positive heading into 2026. Ongoing regulatory and legal headlines such as those affecting short sellers and crypto crime are also in focus.

News Conclusion

• The closing of 2025 saw strong stock market performance, although some year-end volatility and declining optimism about a late rally have emerged.
• Equities are still broadly supported by technological innovation, favorable interest rate outlooks, and resilient sector leadership from technology, health care, and energy.
• Commodity and currency markets remain sensitive to Fed policy signals and global geopolitical events, with precious metals outperforming energy on safe-haven flows and supply-demand dynamics.
• Market participants should be aware of ongoing debates regarding AI valuation, regulatory/legal developments, and shifting Fed expectations, as these factors could influence volatility and sector performance moving into 2026.

Market News Sentiment:

Market News Articles: 38

• Neutral: 39.47%
• Positive: 36.84%
• Negative: 23.68%

Sentiment Summary:
Market news sentiment is largely neutral, accounting for approximately 39% of articles. Positive news comprises around 37%, while negative sentiment is less prevalent at about 24%.

Conclusion:
Overall, recent market news reflects a balanced perspective, with a slight tilt towards neutrality and a moderate representation of positive sentiment. Negative coverage has been less dominant in the current reporting cycle.

GLD,Gold Articles: 15

• Positive: 53.33%
• Neutral: 33.33%
• Negative: 13.33%

Sentiment Summary: Out of 15 recent articles covering GLD and Gold, 53.33% were positive, 33.33% were neutral, and 13.33% were negative.

This reflects a predominantly positive news sentiment towards GLD and Gold in the latest coverage.

USO,Oil Articles: 7

• Negative: 71.43%
• Positive: 28.57%

Sentiment Summary: The majority of recent news articles related to USO and oil exhibit a negative sentiment (71.43%), with a smaller portion reflecting positive sentiment (28.57%).

This indicates that recent media coverage surrounding USO and oil has leaned predominantly negative.

Market Data Snapshot

ETF Snapshot of major stock market ETFs, Mag7, and others as of: December 31, 2025 07:16

• META 665.95 Bullish 1.10%
• IBIT 49.83 Bullish 0.91%
• AMZN 232.53 Bullish 0.20%
• USO 69.74 Bullish 0.19%
• MSFT 487.48 Bullish 0.08%
• GLD 398.89 Bullish 0.07%
• GOOG 314.55 Bullish 0.05%
• SPY 687.01 Bearish -0.12%
• DIA 483.59 Bearish -0.21%
• QQQ 619.43 Bearish -0.23%
• TLT 87.86 Bearish -0.24%
• AAPL 273.08 Bearish -0.25%
• IJH 66.70 Bearish -0.34%
• NVDA 187.54 Bearish -0.36%
• IWM 248.03 Bearish -0.74%
• TSLA 454.43 Bearish -1.13%

Higher Time Frame Analysis

Summary of the current state of US Indices Futures based on higher time-frame (HTF) technical analysis as of: 2025-12-31: 07:16 CT.

US Indices Futures

• ES YSFG/MSFG uptrend, WSFG short-term down, above major MA benchmarks, swing pivots: 7013.50 high resistance, 6780.54 key support, consolidation phase with HTF bullish structure.
• NQ YSFG uptrend, MSFG up/WSFG down, below weekly NTZ, swing pivots: 26655.5 resistance, 21843 support, short-term bearish bias, long-term uptrend, consolidation/corrective structure.
• YM YSFG/MSFG uptrend, WSFG short-term down, above key MAs, swing pivots: 48936 resistance, 46170 support, short-term pullback, HTF bullish structure above main support.
• EMD YSFG/MSFG uptrend, WSFG down, price above long-term NTZ, swing pivots: 3434.7 resistance, 3133.2 support, short-term weakness, consolidation/corrective within larger uptrend.
• RTY YSFG/MSFG uptrend, WSFG short-term down, above monthly/yearly NTZ, swing pivots: 2633 resistance, 2473/2210 support, short-term pullback in bullish HTF context.
• FDAX YSFG/MSFG/WSFG all bullish, above all key MAs, recent pivot high at 24570, resistance: 25061, support: 23133, strong uptrend with potential consolidation above support.

Overall State

• Short-Term: Bearish to Neutral (FDAX bullish, others mostly short-term pullback/consolidation)
• Intermediate-Term: Bullish to Neutral (all US indices bullish except NQ and FDAX neutral)
• Long-Term: Bullish (all instruments maintain ongoing long-term uptrends across session fib grids and benchmarks)

Conclusion

The US Indices Futures HTF structure remains bullish in intermediate and long-term timeframes, with price above key yearly and monthly session fib grid levels and major moving averages trending higher. Recent short-term signals and WSFG trends have shifted to bearish or neutral for ES, NQ, YM, EMD, and RTY, indicating ongoing consolidation or pullback phases following strong rallies. Key swing pivots and support/resistance levels are being tested, with volatility moderately elevated as short-term retracements develop. FDAX diverges with continued short-term and multi-timeframe strength, trading near highs and breaking resistance. The current environment reflects digestion or corrective action within established uptrends for the US indices, while underlying HTF bullish structure and moving average configurations remain in place across all markets.

Note: Intra-day counter-trend pullbacks or retracements may occur, HTF is context for informational usage and market structure. Glossary: Session Fib Grids periods of YSFG:’Yearly’, MSFG:’Monthly’, WSFG:’Weekly’

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Tech Weekly View

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