The 25bp cut for September is already effective, and today's CPI data will not alter this decision. Markets are already anticipating an additional 25bp cut, with expectations extending beyond September. 1. Positive Aspects 1A. Shelter – Mortgage Rates Drop Mortgage rates fell sharply in August, easing financial conditions for households: … [Read more...] about CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
fed-rates
August 2025 Interest Rates: Cosmetic Moves vs. Real Change
Conditions for a Real Rate Cut vs. Virtue Signaling for Political and Lobby Appeasement. There’s an old principle — “change everything, so as not to change anything.” That’s the perfect description of the current interest rate scenario. Yields Tell the Story A single figure explains the situation: 13-week bill YTM (July 1 → … [Read more...] about August 2025 Interest Rates: Cosmetic Moves vs. Real Change
US Treasury Data vs Political Statements: The Reality Behind Rate Cut Calls
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to start a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the benchmark rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower. However, beyond political positioning, the real question is whether the numbers support such a move. The Key Obstacle: Debt Placement Challenges The … [Read more...] about US Treasury Data vs Political Statements: The Reality Behind Rate Cut Calls
July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Yesterday, the US financial media came close to ridicule in their commentary on the July 2025 CPI data, attributing the slight increase to the Customs Duties that went into effect in April. A closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Headline CPI Figures CPI all items (Y/Y %): June 2.67 → July 2.70 CPI all items (vs. previous month %): July 2024 +0.12 … [Read more...] about July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment Ahead of the September FOMC The equity rally continues to feed on one dominant catalyst: confidence that the Federal Reserve will trim the fed-funds target by 25 bp at the September meeting. Even though such a move would be largely symbolic—a political cut with modest direct impact on funding … [Read more...] about Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Aug 04 2025-Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets
Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets Over the past two sessions the 13-week Treasury bill yield has fallen toward 4.25 %, while the 30-year bond remains steady near 4.80 %. This classic Fed “defensive twist” lets the front end absorb easing hopes without igniting a full-blown rally in long-duration assets. Below is a … [Read more...] about Aug 04 2025-Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets
Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
In the days following the July employment report, a wave of pessimistic commentary painted the American economy as an “economic mirage.” The narrative blamed policy uncertainty, tariff-driven inflation, and tighter immigration rules for allegedly choking growth. Yet a closer look at January–July macro data tells a very different story—one of continued expansion, not … [Read more...] about Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
fear and loathing in the us markets
Fear, Loathing, and Tariff Rodeos—How Institutional Investors Are Navigating 2025’s U.S. Market Cross-Currents “Buy the upside, rent the downside.” That mantra captures the uneasy mix of bullish positioning and tail-risk hedging that dominates today’s tape. 1 Where Today’s “Fear & Loathing” Shows Up 1.1 The Fear Tail-Risk Hedges Stay Busy. Index-put skew and … [Read more...] about fear and loathing in the us markets