U.S. private payrolls averaged 621,000 more jobs in January–October 2026 than in the same months of 2025, while government payrolls averaged 208,000 fewer. October extended the private-sector gains. It also showed a rebound in jobs and purchasing power among workers outside the production and nonsupervisory group, a pattern worth following into the next reports.
Pay tells a narrower story. At an assumed 3.63% annual PCE inflation rate, the average private paycheck bought only 0.09% more than a year earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. The real payroll bill grew an estimated 0.80%. The distinction matters for spending and for how markets read the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Year-to-date view: Private payrolls grew as government payrolls contracted
Across the first ten months of 2026, not seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm payrolls averaged 412,300 more jobs (+0.26%) than in January–October 2025. Private payrolls averaged 620,700 more (+0.46%) and government averaged 208,400 fewer (−0.89%). Federal payrolls accounted for the largest decline. A smaller public workforce could reflect an effort to streamline operations. Payroll counts alone cannot establish the motive or show whether public-sector productivity improved.
That comparison describes the year so far against the same stretch of 2025. The next comparison tests where October landed relative to the nine months that preceded it.
October cleared the January–September average, even after seasonal adjustment
| Series | Jan–Sep average | October | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm, NSA | 158,488.8 | 160,277 | +1,788.2 |
| Total private, NSA | 135,274.4 | 136,624 | +1,349.6 |
| Total nonfarm, SA | 158,811.9 | 159,293 | +481.1 |
| Total private, SA | 135,483.6 | 135,961 | +477.4 |
| Private payrolls outside production and nonsupervisory group, SA | 24,919 | 25,067 | +148 |
October’s private payroll count stood 477,000 above the January–September average after seasonal adjustment. The corresponding raw gap was 1.35 million. Both are comparisons of employment levels, and the raw comparison still includes recurring seasonal hiring.
The hiring mix is worth watching. Subtracting the BLS production and nonsupervisory count from total private payrolls leaves 25.067 million jobs in October, up 148,000 from the January–September average. That group accounted for about 31% of the private payroll gap despite representing about 18% of the baseline workforce. It added 65,000 in September and another 38,000 in October after losing 37,000 in August. The rebound continued in October at a slower pace.
This residual is a broad proxy for supervisory and other roles outside the BLS production and nonsupervisory group. It includes some jobs without supervisory duties, and it cannot establish that employers added managers specifically. Continued gains would indicate that hiring outside the production and nonsupervisory group is becoming more sustained.
Calculations use BLS establishment survey Tables B-1 and B-6, with the most recent published estimate available for each month as of November 6. August through October use the October Employment Situation. Earlier months use the corresponding archived Employment Situation releases. September and October estimates are preliminary.
Real weekly pay and payroll compared with the January–September average
| Measure | Jan–Sep average | October | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| All private jobs, weekly pay per job | $984.50 | $987.10 | +0.26% |
| All private jobs, weekly payroll | $133.38 billion | $134.21 billion | +0.62% |
| Jobs outside the production and nonsupervisory group, weekly pay per job | $1,646.32 | $1,656.05 | +0.59% |
| Jobs outside the production and nonsupervisory group, weekly payroll | $41.02 billion | $41.51 billion | +1.19% |
Real weekly pay per job in the group that includes supervisory roles rose 0.59% from its January–September average. Its estimated total real weekly payroll rose 1.19%. Both gains were roughly twice the corresponding private-sector gains. Together with the rebound in headcount, this is an early sign that the mix of hiring and pay may be shifting.
We estimate each monthly wage bill by multiplying the BLS employment count by its average weekly earnings. Subtracting the production and nonsupervisory wage bill from the all-private wage bill gives the residual. Dividing by the residual job count gives estimated weekly pay per job. We deflate each month with the corresponding BEA headline PCE index before averaging January through September. The October index is a scenario pending the official release.
Workers with degrees gained share in October
| Education | September employed (millions) | October employed (millions) | October share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than high school | 7.857 | 7.323 | 5.08% |
| High school, no college | 34.788 | 35.205 | 24.43% |
| Some college or associate degree | 34.500 | 34.367 | 23.85% |
| Bachelor’s degree or higher | 66.592 | 67.209 | 46.64% |
The bachelor’s-or-higher share rose from 46.33% in September to 46.64% in October. The less-than-high-school share fell from 5.47% to 5.08%. October 2025 is missing from Table A-4 because the federal shutdown interrupted household data collection. The raw monthly shift can reflect seasonality and changes in who participates in the labor force. The rise in the degree-holding share is consistent with a shift toward jobs that may require more education. The household survey and payroll survey track different populations, so these figures cannot establish that the same workers filled the supervisory or other roles driving the payroll change.
October year over year: Private hiring drove the gain
Private employers had 958,000 more jobs than in October 2025, before seasonal adjustment. Government employment was down 36,000, leaving nonfarm payrolls up 922,000. The federal count fell 63,000 while local government added 35,000.
| Industry | October jobs (thousands) | September to October | October Y/Y jobs (thousands) | October Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm | 160,277 | +0.64% | +922 | +0.58% |
| Total private | 136,624 | +0.53% | +958 | +0.71% |
| Goods-producing | 21,827 | +0.13% | +198 | +0.92% |
| Construction | 8,525 | +0.15% | +112 | +1.33% |
| Manufacturing | 12,693 | +0.13% | +87 | +0.69% |
| Private services | 114,797 | +0.61% | +760 | +0.67% |
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 28,891 | +0.77% | +134 | +0.47% |
| Utilities | 610.6 | +0.13% | +9.3 | +1.55% |
| Financial activities | 9,102 | +0.32% | -98 | −1.07% |
| Professional and business services | 22,828 | +1.25% | +240 | +1.06% |
| Private education and health services | 28,239 | +1.04% | +517 | +1.86% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 16,956 | −0.88% | +40 | +0.24% |
| Government | 23,653 | +1.28% | -36 | −0.15% |
| Federal government | 2,684 | 0.00% | -63 | −2.29% |
| State government | 5,632 | +1.57% | -8 | −0.14% |
| Local government | 15,337 | +1.39% | +35 | +0.23% |
Same-month comparisons reduce the effect of recurring seasonal patterns. The raw September-to-October figures still include those patterns, especially the return of school payrolls. The table shows point-in-time changes.
Construction added 112,000 jobs from a year earlier. Nonresidential specialty contractors accounted for roughly 104,000 of the increase, and heavy and civil engineering construction added 26,100. Residential specialty contractors shed 43,600. Professional, scientific and technical services added 119,000, including gains in architectural and engineering services. These are industry payroll counts. They do not isolate individual occupations or identify which projects drove hiring.
Seasonally adjusted headline
BLS reported 165,000 additional nonfarm jobs in October and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Private payrolls rose by 159,000. Nonfarm payrolls added 411,000 over August through October, or 137,000 a month, versus 48,000 a month over the 12 months preceding October. Professional and business services added 70,000 in October, private education and health services 53,000, and construction lost 3,000. Measured against July, nonfarm payrolls increased 0.26% over three months (1.04% annualized). Compared with the December 2025 level of 158.497 million in the February benchmark release, payrolls were up 0.50% through October (0.60% annualized). Annualization compounds the three-month change to the fourth power and the ten-month YTD change to the power of 12/10. The YTD figure compares endpoints. The household survey also recorded a 339,000 increase in people working part time for economic reasons.
October weekly pay year over year: Utilities and construction led
Private weekly earnings rose to $1,307.20, up 0.37% from September and 3.72% from a year earlier. Weekly hours held at 34.4 in October. For production and nonsupervisory employees, weekly earnings reached $1,106.95, up 0.07% on the month and 3.62% on the year. This group has its own published series. Supervisory pay cannot be inferred by comparing these two averages.
| Industry | October weekly pay | Nominal pay MoM | Nominal pay Y/Y | Real pay MoM | Real pay Y/Y | Real payroll Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total private | $1,307.20 | +0.37% | +3.72% | +0.24% | +0.09% | +0.80% |
| Goods-producing | $1,576.64 | +0.67% | +5.54% | +0.54% | +1.84% | +2.81% |
| Construction | $1,655.98 | +1.17% | +6.05% | +1.04% | +2.34% | +3.85% |
| Manufacturing | $1,508.22 | +0.49% | +5.12% | +0.36% | +1.43% | +2.04% |
| Utilities | $2,427.82 | +1.57% | +7.63% | +1.44% | +3.86% | +5.55% |
| Financial activities | $1,865.25 | +0.14% | +3.24% | +0.01% | −0.38% | −1.45% |
| Professional and business services | $1,702.00 | +0.60% | +3.57% | +0.47% | −0.06% | +1.15% |
| Private education and health services | $1,202.78 | +0.33% | +2.31% | +0.20% | −1.27% | +0.63% |
| Leisure and hospitality | $609.45 | +0.25% | +3.46% | +0.12% | −0.16% | −0.06% |
October headline PCE inflation is assumed to be 0.13% MoM and 3.63% Y/Y for these separate sensitivity calculations. BEA is scheduled to release October PCE on November 25. Its latest release puts September headline inflation at 3.6% Y/Y and core inflation at 3.1%. The October results are AlphaTraderNews estimates based on specified price assumptions.
We use BEA’s headline PCE price index, Table 2.8.4, a seasonally adjusted chain-type index with 2017 equal to 100. For each horizon, divide the nominal earnings or payroll-index ratio by the price-index ratio for the same months, subtract one and multiply by 100. The index base cancels. Aggregate payroll reflects jobs, hours and pay across covered payrolls. The published index is rounded, so the resulting estimates are approximate. AlphaTraderNews plans to use headline PCE for this analysis over the next 12–18 months. Read our earlier explanation of why we chose PCE.
Construction and utilities show the strongest estimated gains among the industries in the table. Education and health services illustrate why both measures matter. Estimated purchasing power fell 1.27% per job while the aggregate payroll gained 0.63%. Finance lost ground on both measures. At 3.50% PCE inflation, average private real weekly pay would be up about 0.22% Y/Y. At 3.80%, it would be down about 0.07%.
What markets should watch
Hiring and a larger real wage bill can support consumer spending, but the gain in the average paycheck is thin. BEA reported that September real disposable income fell 0.3% while real consumption barely increased and the saving rate stood at 3.8%. Those figures make household income and saving important checks on whether the payroll gain translates into durable demand.
For Treasury yields and rate-sensitive equities, the October jobs report reduces the case for easing based on weak hiring alone. The inflation release will help determine how much of the nominal pay gain households kept. The report by itself gives little evidence about whether stronger pay reflects productivity, changes in hours or a different mix of jobs.