Weak payrolls and stagnant real wages argue against another interest-rate increase, while oil, producer prices and geopolitical risk prevent the Federal Reserve from declaring victory over inflation. The most credible policy is a disciplined pause—not a return to Bernanke-era quantitative easing. Research and forecast information updated August 13, 2026, before the July … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Pause or Hike? July CPI, Jobs, PPI and Oil Risks Point to a Better Policy Path
Real Earnings
The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said
The dominant media story was a divided Federal Reserve, three dissents and a chairman offering few answers. That framing misses the substance of the July decision. The Fed held rates steady because commodity-driven inflation, already-restrictive market yields and fragile real purchasing power require more judgment than an automatic rate increase. Much of the post-meeting … [Read more...] about The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said