Industrial investment and employment can remain resilient while inflation erodes the purchasing power of household earnings. Illustration.September’s employment report has a monetary dimension that job counts alone cannot capture: how much purchasing power wages deliver to households after inflation. A resilient payroll total can coexist with a weakening consumer when prices … [Read more...] about September 2026 Real Earnings: Inflation Squeezes Paychecks as Industry and Services Diverge
Real Earnings
September 2026 Employment Report: Jobs Rebound, Purchasing Power Faces the CPI Test
September’s employment figures contain a stronger recovery than the weak payroll headline suggests. Unadjusted household employment rose by 772,000, while unemployment fell by 522,000. However, a positive employment reading does not automatically translate into stronger purchasing power: under an assumed 0.45% monthly CPI increase, verified weekly earnings imply a modest real … [Read more...] about September 2026 Employment Report: Jobs Rebound, Purchasing Power Faces the CPI Test
Mortgage Rates, the 30-Year Treasury and the Next Test of Household Income
The near-term economic picture is fragile. Housing finance is becoming more expensive just as inflation tests the purchasing power of earnings. The next question is whether household income can continue to absorb both pressures. The second monthly report on wages is due next week alongside the Personal Income data, which should confirm the monetary figures from the August … [Read more...] about Mortgage Rates, the 30-Year Treasury and the Next Test of Household Income
Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
A September Federal Reserve rate hike is now firmly priced into financial markets, although the FOMC has not yet announced its decision. Short-term Treasury yields have already moved above the Federal Reserve’s current target range, while rate futures indicate a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting. This distinction matters. Higher … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
Fed Rate Pause or Hike? July CPI, Jobs, PPI and Oil Risks Point to a Better Policy Path
Weak payrolls and stagnant real wages argue against another interest-rate increase, while oil, producer prices and geopolitical risk prevent the Federal Reserve from declaring victory over inflation. The most credible policy is a disciplined pause—not a return to Bernanke-era quantitative easing. Research and forecast information updated August 13, 2026, before the July … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Pause or Hike? July CPI, Jobs, PPI and Oil Risks Point to a Better Policy Path
The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said
The dominant media story was a divided Federal Reserve, three dissents and a chairman offering few answers. That framing misses the substance of the July decision. The Fed held rates steady because commodity-driven inflation, already-restrictive market yields and fragile real purchasing power require more judgment than an automatic rate increase. Much of the post-meeting … [Read more...] about The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said