June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices Fall and Mortgage Rates Stabilize Data updated through June 22, 2026 The inflation picture improved during the first three weeks of June. Energy prices declined sharply from May levels, while mortgage rates remained broadly stable. Together, these developments reduce the probability of renewed inflationary pressure entering … [Read more...] about June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
CPI
Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
May 2026 retail-sales analysis, with an energy-price update through mid-June 2026 The current retail-sales and consumption picture is not positive. Although headline sales may rise in nominal dollar terms, inflation-adjusted data indicate that consumers are purchasing less in real terms across important parts of the economy. A sustained slowdown in consumption does not affect … [Read more...] about Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
2026 March CPI, Real Earnings Resilience, and the Market’s Iran Risk Problem
Friday's CPI data did not change the core conclusion: the wage and weekly earnings system still appears resilient in real terms, even after a sharp inflation shock. The larger risk for markets remains the instability surrounding Iran, oil, and the Strait of Hormuz. March CPI came in hot, but not above the break-even threshold The March CPI report was stronger … [Read more...] about 2026 March CPI, Real Earnings Resilience, and the Market’s Iran Risk Problem
Preliminary Employment Report – March 2026
Eco / CPI The breakeven point for the March CPI increase, on a month-on-month basis, to bring weekly earnings to zero in real terms is +1.3% versus the previous month, equivalent to roughly 15.6% annualized. That is an exceptionally high value. With a CPI figure at that level, real weekly earnings would be as follows: Single Real … [Read more...] about Preliminary Employment Report – March 2026
Employment Report Preview: Cooling Labor, Negative Real Wages, and a System Under Pressure
A softer labor market may not offer relief if March CPI overwhelms wage growth and deepens pressure on consumption, GDP, and public finances. Labor Market Cooling, but the Main Issue Is Employment The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly to 4.5% from 4.4%, signaling a further, modest cooling of the labor market. That, however, is not the … [Read more...] about Employment Report Preview: Cooling Labor, Negative Real Wages, and a System Under Pressure
Dollar Strength, Rising Yields, and a System Under Pressure: A Ticking CPI Bomb?
A strengthening dollar, persistent bond selling, and rising mortgage stress are converging into a critical inflation risk event. Market backdrop After an early-week risk bounce linked to Trump-related headlines, Thursday, March 26, 2026, evolved into another session of gradual but persistent selling across U.S. duration. Treasury yields pushed higher again, … [Read more...] about Dollar Strength, Rising Yields, and a System Under Pressure: A Ticking CPI Bomb?
CPI Shock Risk Builds as Energy and Shelter Costs Surge
Rising fuel prices, higher mortgage rates, and tightening real incomes point to a potential inflation shock with major market implications Data through: March 23, 2026 Executive Overview Financial markets are currently showing limited large-scale volatility, yet remain highly attractive for very short-term speculative trading. Beneath this … [Read more...] about CPI Shock Risk Builds as Energy and Shelter Costs Surge
Latest CPI Report, Energy Prices, and Fiscal Pressure: A Market Sentiment Overview as of March 2026
Updated for the latest U.S. CPI release available as of March 19, 2026 Latest CPI Snapshot: February 2026 As of March 19, 2026, the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index report is the February 2026 release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 11, 2026. Headline CPI rose 2.4% year over year, unchanged from January, while core CPI, excluding … [Read more...] about Latest CPI Report, Energy Prices, and Fiscal Pressure: A Market Sentiment Overview as of March 2026
Market Stability vs. Inflation Pressure — February 2026 CPI Analysis
Market Behavior: Defense of Current Levels For now, the market appears focused on maintaining current price levels and containing any potential decline. This stability is being supported by the ongoing earnings campaign and a pronounced “seesaw” trading pattern. In effect, the market is largely ignoring the weak February CPI data — data that does not yet reflect the … [Read more...] about Market Stability vs. Inflation Pressure — February 2026 CPI Analysis
Inflation Update Pre-Release February 2026 CPI and Forward Energy Risks
Pre-Release Summary Ahead of the official CPI release, key indicators suggest mixed signals driven by base effects, energy prices, and underlying inflation momentum. Key Takeaways Base Effects Likely to Lower Headline Y/Y Inflation February 2026 year-over-year inflation is heavily influenced by the comparison with February 2025. Even with continued monthly price … [Read more...] about Inflation Update Pre-Release February 2026 CPI and Forward Energy Risks
Walmart, CPI, and the AI Hangover: What Really Matters This Week
Walmart Earnings: A Real-Time Barometer of the U.S. Consumer The most important data point of the week is Thursday’s fourth-quarter release from Walmart (WMT). More than many macro indicators, Walmart’s earnings represent a strong and tangible indicator of consumer spending trends across income brackets. Walmart captures the … [Read more...] about Walmart, CPI, and the AI Hangover: What Really Matters This Week
CPI January 2026 – Tariffs Begin to Show Their Weight
Headline Surprise vs. Forecast Our forecast for January 2026 CPI was +0.25% month-over-month, equivalent to roughly 3.00%–3.04% annualized, explicitly stated as “subject to the effects of the tariff increase.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) instead reported +0.38% month-over-month, equivalent to 4.56%–4.65% … [Read more...] about CPI January 2026 – Tariffs Begin to Show Their Weight
December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper
The December CPI release is expected to validate what markets are already signaling: the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut exists formally, but not functionally. Neither the most recent cut nor the previous ones have translated into real-world financial conditions. 1. 13-Week Treasury Bill: The Fed’s Own Rule Is Not Met Historically, … [Read more...] about December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper
Cooling CPI Components potential Further Fed Rate Cut
Cooling CPI Components Strengthen the Case for a Further Fed Rate Cut Overview With the end of the recent government shutdown, official data releases are gradually resuming. The first incoming figures are expected to be weak, but not uniformly negative across all indicators. A key focus remains the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — both for its influence on potential further … [Read more...] about Cooling CPI Components potential Further Fed Rate Cut
July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Yesterday, the US financial media came close to ridicule in their commentary on the July 2025 CPI data, attributing the slight increase to the Customs Duties that went into effect in April. A closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Headline CPI Figures CPI all items (Y/Y %): June 2.67 → July 2.70 CPI all items (vs. previous month %): July 2024 +0.12 … [Read more...] about July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Key take-aways from cpi macro tape
1 — CPI: Services & “Food-at-Home” Dominate Headline CPI: 2.7 % Y/Y in June (up from 2.4 % in May). Shelter cooled, but: Medical-care services rose 0.6 % M/M; now 3.4 % Y/Y. Food-at-home gained 0.3 % M/M; 2.4 % Y/Y. Implication: Services inflation has re-emerged, making a near-term Fed cut unlikely. 2 — Long Bonds Under … [Read more...] about Key take-aways from cpi macro tape