A year-to-date assessment — and why tariffs helped the Treasury but as yet not the system If you look at the year-to-date (YTD) data, the message is fairly clear: higher tariffs have not worked so far. However, the reason is not just the outcome, but the structure and timing of the data itself. … [Read more...] about How Have Tariffs Worked So Far?
tariffs
CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
The 25bp cut for September is already effective, and today's CPI data will not alter this decision. Markets are already anticipating an additional 25bp cut, with expectations extending beyond September. 1. Positive Aspects 1A. Shelter – Mortgage Rates Drop Mortgage rates fell sharply in August, easing financial conditions for households: … [Read more...] about CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025) The latest U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (June 2025) explains why producer prices are still tame, despite a fast-approaching tariff wall, and why the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode. 1 | Trade-Balance Snapshot … [Read more...] about Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Tariff Tensions and Fiscal Uncertainty Cloud US-EU Relations and trade deal
Uncertainty Cloud US-EU Relations over trade deals As of July 29, 2025, monetary policy watchers and market participants face a hazy horizon. Tariff uncertainty, a fragile US-EU trade framework, and unresolved issues around taxation of big tech add to the noise ahead of the next Personal Income and Spending report. Upcoming Report: Personal Income and Spending The … [Read more...] about Tariff Tensions and Fiscal Uncertainty Cloud US-EU Relations and trade deal
fear and loathing in the us markets
Fear, Loathing, and Tariff Rodeos—How Institutional Investors Are Navigating 2025’s U.S. Market Cross-Currents “Buy the upside, rent the downside.” That mantra captures the uneasy mix of bullish positioning and tail-risk hedging that dominates today’s tape. 1 Where Today’s “Fear & Loathing” Shows Up 1.1 The Fear Tail-Risk Hedges Stay Busy. Index-put skew and … [Read more...] about fear and loathing in the us markets