Headline Surprise vs. Forecast Our forecast for January 2026 CPI was +0.25% month-over-month, equivalent to roughly 3.00%–3.04% annualized, explicitly stated as “subject to the effects of the tariff increase.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) instead reported +0.38% month-over-month, equivalent to 4.56%–4.65% … [Read more...] about CPI January 2026 – Tariffs Begin to Show Their Weight
Fed Rates
January employment data Strong Jobs Report Likely to Keep the Fed on Hold
January employment data confirms strong hiring, real wage growth, and solid consumption. Analysis of CPI base effects and implications for Federal Reserve rate policy. Employment Report Confirms System Strength The latest employment report confirms our forecasts. The data is clearly positive and indicates that the economic … [Read more...] about January employment data Strong Jobs Report Likely to Keep the Fed on Hold
December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper
The December CPI release is expected to validate what markets are already signaling: the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut exists formally, but not functionally. Neither the most recent cut nor the previous ones have translated into real-world financial conditions. 1. 13-Week Treasury Bill: The Fed’s Own Rule Is Not Met Historically, … [Read more...] about December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper
December Fed Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakness, and the Hidden Stress on US Debt and Trade
The first market reaction to the rate cut has been anything but benign. Immediate Market Reaction: USD Devaluation The first observable effect of the rate cut has been clearly negative through the currency channel. The EUR/USD moved from 1.1690 to 1.1745 between November 21 (11:22) and December 11 (01:46), marking a … [Read more...] about December Fed Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakness, and the Hidden Stress on US Debt and Trade
Fed Cuts 25 bps: A Political Move, and the Market Calls It “No News”
Fed’s 25 bps Cut: A Political Decision, a Neutral Market Reaction, and a Shift for Short-Term Liquidity December 10, 2025 A Predictable Cut with Limited Systemic Impact The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate cut as widely expected. The conditions for a classic easing cycle were not present, making this a political move rather … [Read more...] about Fed Cuts 25 bps: A Political Move, and the Market Calls It “No News”
The Market Is Asleep: Waiting for a Policy Cut That Still Has No Real Conditions
Wednesday 14:00 - High USD Federal Funds Rate Wednesday 14:00 - High USD FOMC Economic Projections Wednesday 14:00 - High USD FOMC Statement Wednesday 14:30 - High USD FOMC Press Conference Fed Funds Rate - Fed Wed! Sideways before the news We enter another quiet session with the market drifting in a semi-sleepwalk, awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next … [Read more...] about The Market Is Asleep: Waiting for a Policy Cut That Still Has No Real Conditions
The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment
The Federal Reserve begins its December conclave today, with conclusions expected on Wednesday, 10 December 2025. Despite the media dramatization surrounding the meeting, the outcome is largely predetermined: a 25 basis point rate cut that is political rather than economic in nature. Why This Cut Is Not Economically Justified Under classic macroeconomic conditions—barring … [Read more...] about The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment
The Market Hangover: Why December’s Rate Cut Is Political
Why December’s Rate Cut Is Political, Not Effective The market is staggering forward in a kind of speculative drunkenness. Headlines paint a simple story of “Fed cuts = market boost,” but the reality underneath tells a very different tale. The system is entering a hangover phase where political moves, short-term speculation, and structural constraints collide with hard … [Read more...] about The Market Hangover: Why December’s Rate Cut Is Political
Why the Latest Fed Rate Cut Was Political: A Clear Real-World Example
No significant rate cut offered - debt, bond auction appetite, trade war inflation and politics shape the macro view Treasury auctions and market demand set the pace, and the Fed usually confirms what the market has already priced. The November 13 Treasury auction provides a perfect, up-to-date example showing why the most recent Fed rate cut was not driven by … [Read more...] about Why the Latest Fed Rate Cut Was Political: A Clear Real-World Example
How Monetary Policy Really Works Today (Post-2000 Reality vs Textbook Theory)
Monetary Policy After 2000: Why the Textbooks Are Out of Date? In university textbooks, monetary policy is still presented as a simple, top-down story: the Central Bank sets the base interest rate, controls liquidity, and manages inflation by tightening or loosening money supply. Since the early 2000s, this has become more like medieval history … [Read more...] about How Monetary Policy Really Works Today (Post-2000 Reality vs Textbook Theory)