Why the Market “Cannot” Fall — Yet Price Is Still the Only Truth As of November 20, 2025, the U.S. equity market appears trapped in a regime where a meaningful decline is not only unwelcome but structurally discouraged. Major companies, banks, and large trading institutions all benefit from elevated asset prices and have every incentive to keep the market … [Read more...] about Why the Market Cannot Decline: NVDA, AI Costs, Interest Rates and Misleading Trade Data
economic finance
How Monetary Policy Really Works Today (Post-2000 Reality vs Textbook Theory)
Monetary Policy After 2000: Why the Textbooks Are Out of Date? In university textbooks, monetary policy is still presented as a simple, top-down story: the Central Bank sets the base interest rate, controls liquidity, and manages inflation by tightening or loosening money supply. Since the early 2000s, this has become more like medieval history … [Read more...] about How Monetary Policy Really Works Today (Post-2000 Reality vs Textbook Theory)
Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment Ahead of the September FOMC The equity rally continues to feed on one dominant catalyst: confidence that the Federal Reserve will trim the fed-funds target by 25 bp at the September meeting. Even though such a move would be largely symbolic—a political cut with modest direct impact on funding … [Read more...] about Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Aug 04 2025-Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets
Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets Over the past two sessions the 13-week Treasury bill yield has fallen toward 4.25 %, while the 30-year bond remains steady near 4.80 %. This classic Fed “defensive twist” lets the front end absorb easing hopes without igniting a full-blown rally in long-duration assets. Below is a … [Read more...] about Aug 04 2025-Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets
Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
In the days following the July employment report, a wave of pessimistic commentary painted the American economy as an “economic mirage.” The narrative blamed policy uncertainty, tariff-driven inflation, and tighter immigration rules for allegedly choking growth. Yet a closer look at January–July macro data tells a very different story—one of continued expansion, not … [Read more...] about Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
July 2025 BLS Employment Reports Real Wage Gains
July 2025 BLS Employment Report: Real Wage Gains Underpin U.S. Consumption Monthly and year-ending figures show broad, inflation-adjusted growth in average weekly earnings, reinforcing the spending power that supports the economy. Why Real Earnings Matter The jump in the headline unemployment rate from 4.1 % to 4.2 % is statistically negligible. What drives … [Read more...] about July 2025 BLS Employment Reports Real Wage Gains
June CPI (Release 15 July 2025): Why the Market May Shrug
Even if June headline CPI comes in near 0 % m/m (≈ 2.3 % y/y), policy-rate relief is unlikely while short-term bills trade on the Fed’s floor and fiscal worries linger. 1. Components that drive ~50 % of the index Energy (~7 % weight) Regular gasoline: roughly flat month-on-month. Diesel No. 2: retail price up about 3 % m/m. … [Read more...] about June CPI (Release 15 July 2025): Why the Market May Shrug
Thin-Tape, Quiet-Vol Sessions What the Macro Picture Is Really Saying
What is really behind the slow down in volume and market participation? 1. Hushed Price Action, Few Catalysts Both the overnight Globex trade and the post-lunch U.S. cash session continue to show exceptionally light volume and realised vol. Neither the latest GDP print (−0.5 % q/q, chained) nor May’s personal-income / spending figures managed to jolt the market, … [Read more...] about Thin-Tape, Quiet-Vol Sessions What the Macro Picture Is Really Saying
Why are these economic releases more relevant Jobs report and personal income than inflation news?
Why Jobs and Income Data Matter More Than Inflation in 2025 As of 2025, why are these economic releases—Jobs Report and Personal Income—more relevant than inflation news? 1. Why we watch these two reports as traders and market participants Report When it’s released Why it matters … [Read more...] about Why are these economic releases more relevant Jobs report and personal income than inflation news?