- Wednesday 14:00 – High USD Federal Funds Rate
- Wednesday 14:00 – High USD FOMC Economic Projections
- Wednesday 14:00 – High USD FOMC Statement
- Wednesday 14:30 – High USD FOMC Press Conference
Fed Funds Rate – Fed Wed! Sideways before the news
We enter another quiet session with the market drifting in a semi-sleepwalk, awaiting the
Federal Reserve’s next policy rate cut. The irony is evident: the conditions for a cut are
not technically present, and yet the pressure to deliver one is unmistakably political.
If the Fed hesitates now, the outcome under a Trump administration would be predictable —
a full restructuring of leadership and direction.
The Illusion of Market Impact
Mainstream media have begun to question whether the Fed’s policy cuts can actually lower
the rates that matter for households and businesses. What they conveniently ignore is this:
the previous official cut in October has not yet transmitted to the mortgage
and loan market.
Mortgage rates, consumer loans, and refinancing costs have barely moved — a clear sign
that the transmission mechanism is still blocked, and that liquidity conditions do not
respond to central bank adjustments in the smooth, textbook manner that commentators assume.
A Hawkish Cut to Buy Time?
It would not be surprising if this turns out to be a “hawkish cut” — a symbolic move, perhaps 25bp or even 50bp, executed not to ease conditions but to give the Fed strategic breathing space in 2026. Such a cut allows officials to declare that they acted, while emphasizing that future cuts will depend strictly on data.
This approach shifts the real discussion on rates into May–June 2026, when key
uncertainties — inflation behavior, lending conditions, energy costs, and job-market resilience —
will be clearer. The cut becomes not a solution but a mechanism to buy time. To delay discussion and to go in the direction of the new Fed President –
This would be smart – Do you want lower rates? Now with the new Fed Chairman you can manage them and also manage the problem of new debt issues – Best wishes – Powell’s final statement..?