Stagflation is the uncomfortable combination of persistent inflation, weak or stagnant economic growth and a deteriorating labor market. Prices remain under pressure even though the economy is losing momentum. That makes stagflation especially difficult for households, companies, investors and central banks. Stagflation in One Minute The word combines stagnation and … [Read more...] about What Is Stagflation? Why It Hurts the Economy and Financial Markets
GDP
Why Markets Move Before the News: The Institutional Edge over the public market
Why Does the Market Know Before the News? Inside Institutional Models, Private Data and Trading Speed At 8:30:00 a.m. Eastern Time, an important economic report becomes public. Almost immediately, Treasury yields, currencies, equity futures and gold begin moving. By the time the headline appears on an ordinary retail calendar, the first wave of repricing may already be … [Read more...] about Why Markets Move Before the News: The Institutional Edge over the public market
Employment Report Preview: Cooling Labor, Negative Real Wages, and a System Under Pressure
A softer labor market may not offer relief if March CPI overwhelms wage growth and deepens pressure on consumption, GDP, and public finances. Labor Market Cooling, but the Main Issue Is Employment The unemployment rate is forecast to rise slightly to 4.5% from 4.4%, signaling a further, modest cooling of the labor market. That, however, is not the … [Read more...] about Employment Report Preview: Cooling Labor, Negative Real Wages, and a System Under Pressure
US Q3 GDP: A Strong Headline, but GDP reality is more nuanced
The first GDP release shows strength, but the composition tells a more nuanced story. The Q3 GDP data, first released to the media, presents the image of a strong U.S. economy, driven primarily by a robust contribution from personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This reading, however, is only half true. It is important to remember that Q3 GDP … [Read more...] about US Q3 GDP: A Strong Headline, but GDP reality is more nuanced