Yesterday, the US financial media came close to ridicule in their commentary on the July 2025 CPI data, attributing the slight increase to the Customs Duties that went into effect in April. A closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Headline CPI Figures CPI all items (Y/Y %): June 2.67 → July 2.70 CPI all items (vs. previous month %): July 2024 +0.12 … [Read more...] about July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
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Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment Ahead of the September FOMC The equity rally continues to feed on one dominant catalyst: confidence that the Federal Reserve will trim the fed-funds target by 25 bp at the September meeting. Even though such a move would be largely symbolic—a political cut with modest direct impact on funding … [Read more...] about Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025) The latest U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (June 2025) explains why producer prices are still tame, despite a fast-approaching tariff wall, and why the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode. 1 | Trade-Balance Snapshot … [Read more...] about Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Aug 04 2025-Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets
Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets Over the past two sessions the 13-week Treasury bill yield has fallen toward 4.25 %, while the 30-year bond remains steady near 4.80 %. This classic Fed “defensive twist” lets the front end absorb easing hopes without igniting a full-blown rally in long-duration assets. Below is a … [Read more...] about Aug 04 2025-Front-End Yield Slide vs Long Bond Stability: What It Means for Markets
Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
In the days following the July employment report, a wave of pessimistic commentary painted the American economy as an “economic mirage.” The narrative blamed policy uncertainty, tariff-driven inflation, and tighter immigration rules for allegedly choking growth. Yet a closer look at January–July macro data tells a very different story—one of continued expansion, not … [Read more...] about Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
June 2025 PCE Update – U.S. Real Consumption Snapshot
U.S. Real Consumption Snapshot – June 2025 PCE Update Based on Bureau of Economic Analysis tables 2.8.5 and 2.8.4 (real PCE levels and PCE price indexes), the figures below capture the inflation-adjusted growth in spending across goods and services. Percent changes are shown for the latest month (June), year-to-date (YTD), and the most recent 12-month … [Read more...] about June 2025 PCE Update – U.S. Real Consumption Snapshot
July 2025 Mag7 Earnings Analysis growing divergence
Mag7 Earnings Week Analysis: July 28 – Aug 1, 2025 During the week of 28 July–1 August 2025, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Nvidia — took centre stage as they released quarterly results. Performance diverged widely, revealing that the group has moved well beyond a single, uniform trade. Below is a concise look … [Read more...] about July 2025 Mag7 Earnings Analysis growing divergence
June 2025 Personal Income & Spending Analysis
June 2025 Personal Income & Spending: Real Gains, Hidden Risks. Personal-income and spending data for June 2025 broadly confirm the positive trend shown in the BLS employment report. Real gains remain intact, yet much of the strength relies on government-funded transfers—especially Medicare and Medicaid—raising questions about the sustainability of disposable income … [Read more...] about June 2025 Personal Income & Spending Analysis
July 31 2025 Trader Market Radar – NYSE Pre-Market Session
Trader Market Radar - NYSE Pre-Market Session as of July 31, 2025 08:25 ct Trading 360° view: Market SPY Weekly view, holidays, earnings, eco-news, market-news summary, news sentiment, and major ETFs, MAG7, Higher Time Frame Analysis Indices Futures Summary, and QQQ Weekly view. SPY Weekly View Holiday Radar No U.S. market holidays pending in the next 7 … [Read more...] about July 31 2025 Trader Market Radar – NYSE Pre-Market Session
The market is not flat for long, what could drive it?
The market moves either on expectations or on economic data 30 July 2025 Expectations vs. Economic Data: Why Markets Remain Range-Bound 1. The Market’s Tug-of-War Equity volumes have dried up because two opposing forces are cancelling each other out: negative expectations on policy and inflation versus moderately positive economic … [Read more...] about The market is not flat for long, what could drive it?