The December 2025 employment data confirms the presence of a solid economic system capable of supporting consumption, despite interest rates remaining too high. To properly evaluate this strength and the risks ahead, employment must be analyzed through multiple time horizons. Analytical Framework Employment and earnings data should be … [Read more...] about December 2025 Employment Data: A Labor Market Still Supporting Consumption
Economic Pressure, Will Decide the Fate of Fragile Regimes before weapons and war
The current global macro environment makes one reality increasingly clear: modern regimes do not usually collapse because of military defeat, but because their economic systems fail from within. Iran and Cuba: Economic Collapse as the Primary Catalyst The regimes in Iran and Cuba face collapse driven not by weapons, but by prolonged … [Read more...] about Economic Pressure, Will Decide the Fate of Fragile Regimes before weapons and war
Markets Await Employment Data and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
The market is entering a critical juncture, focused on two near-term catalysts: the upcoming employment data and the Supreme Court’s decision on the legitimacy of tariffs. Together, these factors will shape expectations for growth, rates, and capital flows. 1. Employment: Solid but Clearly Cooling The labor market remains resilient, but … [Read more...] about Markets Await Employment Data and Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
The 25bp cut for September is already effective, and today's CPI data will not alter this decision. Markets are already anticipating an additional 25bp cut, with expectations extending beyond September. 1. Positive Aspects 1A. Shelter – Mortgage Rates Drop Mortgage rates fell sharply in August, easing financial conditions for households: … [Read more...] about CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
Trump-Putin Meeting: Strategic Implications for Ukraine, Iran, and U.S. Policy
Today's meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin centers on a crucial objective: securing Putin's support for limiting Iranian uranium enrichment. For the United States, the challenge is clear — it cannot sustain engagement on three fronts simultaneously: Ukraine, Taiwan (China), and the Middle East involving Iran and Israel. Ukraine is expected to … [Read more...] about Trump-Putin Meeting: Strategic Implications for Ukraine, Iran, and U.S. Policy
August 2025 Interest Rates: Cosmetic Moves vs. Real Change
Conditions for a Real Rate Cut vs. Virtue Signaling for Political and Lobby Appeasement. There’s an old principle — “change everything, so as not to change anything.” That’s the perfect description of the current interest rate scenario. Yields Tell the Story A single figure explains the situation: 13-week bill YTM (July 1 → … [Read more...] about August 2025 Interest Rates: Cosmetic Moves vs. Real Change
US Treasury Data vs Political Statements: The Reality Behind Rate Cut Calls
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made his most explicit call yet for the Federal Reserve to start a cycle of interest-rate cuts, suggesting the benchmark rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower. However, beyond political positioning, the real question is whether the numbers support such a move. The Key Obstacle: Debt Placement Challenges The … [Read more...] about US Treasury Data vs Political Statements: The Reality Behind Rate Cut Calls
July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Yesterday, the US financial media came close to ridicule in their commentary on the July 2025 CPI data, attributing the slight increase to the Customs Duties that went into effect in April. A closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Headline CPI Figures CPI all items (Y/Y %): June 2.67 → July 2.70 CPI all items (vs. previous month %): July 2024 +0.12 … [Read more...] about July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment Ahead of the September FOMC The equity rally continues to feed on one dominant catalyst: confidence that the Federal Reserve will trim the fed-funds target by 25 bp at the September meeting. Even though such a move would be largely symbolic—a political cut with modest direct impact on funding … [Read more...] about Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment for Sept 2025
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025) The latest U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (June 2025) explains why producer prices are still tame, despite a fast-approaching tariff wall, and why the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode. 1 | Trade-Balance Snapshot … [Read more...] about Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)