In the days following the July employment report, a wave of pessimistic commentary painted the American economy as an “economic mirage.” The narrative blamed policy uncertainty, tariff-driven inflation, and tighter immigration rules for allegedly choking growth. Yet a closer look at January–July macro data tells a very different story—one of continued expansion, not … [Read more...] about Hard Data vs. Media Hype: What July 2025 Really Says About the U.S. Economy
market economics
June CPI (Release 15 July 2025): Why the Market May Shrug
Even if June headline CPI comes in near 0 % m/m (≈ 2.3 % y/y), policy-rate relief is unlikely while short-term bills trade on the Fed’s floor and fiscal worries linger. 1. Components that drive ~50 % of the index Energy (~7 % weight) Regular gasoline: roughly flat month-on-month. Diesel No. 2: retail price up about 3 % m/m. … [Read more...] about June CPI (Release 15 July 2025): Why the Market May Shrug
Thin-Tape, Quiet-Vol Sessions What the Macro Picture Is Really Saying
What is really behind the slow down in volume and market participation? 1. Hushed Price Action, Few Catalysts Both the overnight Globex trade and the post-lunch U.S. cash session continue to show exceptionally light volume and realised vol. Neither the latest GDP print (−0.5 % q/q, chained) nor May’s personal-income / spending figures managed to jolt the market, … [Read more...] about Thin-Tape, Quiet-Vol Sessions What the Macro Picture Is Really Saying
Why are these economic releases more relevant Jobs report and personal income than inflation news?
Why Jobs and Income Data Matter More Than Inflation in 2025 As of 2025, why are these economic releases—Jobs Report and Personal Income—more relevant than inflation news? 1. Why we watch these two reports as traders and market participants Report When it’s released Why it matters … [Read more...] about Why are these economic releases more relevant Jobs report and personal income than inflation news?