The December 2025 employment data confirms the presence of a solid economic system capable of supporting consumption, despite interest rates remaining too high. To properly evaluate this strength and the risks ahead, employment must be analyzed through multiple time horizons. Analytical Framework Employment and earnings data should be … [Read more...] about December 2025 Employment Data: A Labor Market Still Supporting Consumption
economic finance
US Q3 GDP: A Strong Headline, but GDP reality is more nuanced
The first GDP release shows strength, but the composition tells a more nuanced story. The Q3 GDP data, first released to the media, presents the image of a strong U.S. economy, driven primarily by a robust contribution from personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This reading, however, is only half true. It is important to remember that Q3 GDP … [Read more...] about US Q3 GDP: A Strong Headline, but GDP reality is more nuanced
Iran vs Malaysia: Ideology, Markets, and the Proof of Capital Choice under Radical and Moderate Islamic statehood
Iran vs Malaysia: Two Economic Paths, One Capital Verdict The divergence between Iran’s post-revolution economic collapse and Malaysia’s sustained growth is not theoretical. It is observable, measurable, and ultimately validated by capital itself. Saudi Arabia’s global investment behavior provides a real-world proof of … [Read more...] about Iran vs Malaysia: Ideology, Markets, and the Proof of Capital Choice under Radical and Moderate Islamic statehood
December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper
The December CPI release is expected to validate what markets are already signaling: the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut exists formally, but not functionally. Neither the most recent cut nor the previous ones have translated into real-world financial conditions. 1. 13-Week Treasury Bill: The Fed’s Own Rule Is Not Met Historically, … [Read more...] about December 2025 CPI Confirms the Fed’s December Rate Cut Is Only on Paper
Preliminary Comment on the Employment Report – November 2025
Focus: Employment Report November 2025, Monetary conditions, real earnings, and market reaction Monetary Aspect: Real Earnings The November 2025 employment data shows that average daily earnings are still rising in real terms, despite a noticeable decline in the total number of employees compared with previous months. One-Month Change … [Read more...] about Preliminary Comment on the Employment Report – November 2025
December Fed Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakness, and the Hidden Stress on US Debt and Trade
The first market reaction to the rate cut has been anything but benign. Immediate Market Reaction: USD Devaluation The first observable effect of the rate cut has been clearly negative through the currency channel. The EUR/USD moved from 1.1690 to 1.1745 between November 21 (11:22) and December 11 (01:46), marking a … [Read more...] about December Fed Rate Cuts, Dollar Weakness, and the Hidden Stress on US Debt and Trade
The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment
The Federal Reserve begins its December conclave today, with conclusions expected on Wednesday, 10 December 2025. Despite the media dramatization surrounding the meeting, the outcome is largely predetermined: a 25 basis point rate cut that is political rather than economic in nature. Why This Cut Is Not Economically Justified Under classic macroeconomic conditions—barring … [Read more...] about The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment
The Market Stress Map: Where Do You Go After the Armageddon?
Introduction We have reached a point where multiple macro risks are converging at the same time: regional bank balance-sheet deterioration, sticky inflation, tariff-driven trade conflict, an overpriced equity market inflated by AI enthusiasm, record debt burdens, bond-market fragility, geopolitical confrontations, and the disruptive impact of AI on employment and the tax … [Read more...] about The Market Stress Map: Where Do You Go After the Armageddon?
Why do giant institutions back and fund a strategic Interest in the WEF?
Why do the Masters of the Market Universe: BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, JPM, G&S others back a Strategic Interest in the WEF The conspiracy goes like: we are headed to a planned reset through managed decline, on the back of migration explosion and net zero climate changes - and through the chaos solutions will be offered resulting in a dystopian world of Emperors - … [Read more...] about Why do giant institutions back and fund a strategic Interest in the WEF?
Why America’s Energy System Is Not Ready for Mass-Market AI
The Hidden Bottleneck: Why America’s Energy System Is Not Ready for Mass-Market AI A giant that currently has a high probability of being born lame. Artificial Intelligence promises exponential growth, but its development and mass-market adoption require an energy base that the United States has not yet built. A review of construction trends and electricity generation … [Read more...] about Why America’s Energy System Is Not Ready for Mass-Market AI