The latest 25-basis-point increase may already be largely reflected in Treasury yields, mortgage rates and business borrowing costs. The real question is whether oil-driven inflation will persist and lead markets to price another rate hike—and whether higher rates can do anything about the source of that inflation. The Rate Hike May Already Be Priced In There is little value … [Read more...] about The Fed’s Rate Hike May Be Priced In—Oil Will Decide What Comes Next
Monetary Policy
Fed Rate Pause or Hike? July CPI, Jobs, PPI and Oil Risks Point to a Better Policy Path
Weak payrolls and stagnant real wages argue against another interest-rate increase, while oil, producer prices and geopolitical risk prevent the Federal Reserve from declaring victory over inflation. The most credible policy is a disciplined pause—not a return to Bernanke-era quantitative easing. Research and forecast information updated August 13, 2026, before the July … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Pause or Hike? July CPI, Jobs, PPI and Oil Risks Point to a Better Policy Path
The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said
The dominant media story was a divided Federal Reserve, three dissents and a chairman offering few answers. That framing misses the substance of the July decision. The Fed held rates steady because commodity-driven inflation, already-restrictive market yields and fragile real purchasing power require more judgment than an automatic rate increase. Much of the post-meeting … [Read more...] about The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said
Gold and Precious Metals Outlook 2026: Monetary Headwinds Versus Fiscal Risk
Gold, silver and other precious metals delivered extraordinary gains through 2025 before entering a much more volatile environment in 2026. The central question for investors is now whether renewed monetary tightening will overpower the structural support coming from fiscal deficits, sovereign debt concerns, central-bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty. From the 2025 … [Read more...] about Gold and Precious Metals Outlook 2026: Monetary Headwinds Versus Fiscal Risk