August 2026 U.S. retail sales remained positive in real terms, but the headline conceals two important pressures: relative weakness in motor vehicles and the growing share of household spending absorbed by gasoline. The broad figures are encouraging at first glance. Total retail and food-services sales increased by 1.856% year over year in August, while the January–August … [Read more...] about August 2026 U.S. Retail Sales: Real Growth Persists, but Fuel Costs Distort the Headline
Energy Prices
Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
A September Federal Reserve rate hike is now firmly priced into financial markets, although the FOMC has not yet announced its decision. Short-term Treasury yields have already moved above the Federal Reserve’s current target range, while rate futures indicate a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting. This distinction matters. Higher … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
July 2026 CPI Preview: Jobs, Real Wages and Purchasing Power
The most important July inflation number may not be CPI alone. It will be the purchasing power left in an average weekly paycheck—and whether that improvement is spread across a stable employment base. July's data will arrive in three connected stages. The first will show how many jobs and paid hours supported household income. The second will show how … [Read more...] about July 2026 CPI Preview: Jobs, Real Wages and Purchasing Power
July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls
July’s average fuel prices remain below June’s levels, but a sharp late-month rebound in gasoline and diesel complicates the inflation outlook. At the same time, higher mortgage rates continue to restrict housing affordability and household purchasing power. The apparent flatness of the financial markets is also visible in the July 2026 inflation picture. Headline indicators … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls
June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices Fall and Mortgage Rates Stabilize Data updated through June 22, 2026 The inflation picture improved during the first three weeks of June. Energy prices declined sharply from May levels, while mortgage rates remained broadly stable. Together, these developments reduce the probability of renewed inflationary pressure entering … [Read more...] about June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
May 2026 retail-sales analysis, with an energy-price update through mid-June 2026 The current retail-sales and consumption picture is not positive. Although headline sales may rise in nominal dollar terms, inflation-adjusted data indicate that consumers are purchasing less in real terms across important parts of the economy. A sustained slowdown in consumption does not affect … [Read more...] about Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
June 2026 Inflation Signals Cool as Fuel Prices Fall
Inflation Cools in June as Energy Prices Fall, but Structural Risks Remain Economic and market analysis based on data available through June 15, 2026. Early June Inflation Indicators Early June data suggest that some inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, particularly within the energy sector. However, this should … [Read more...] about June 2026 Inflation Signals Cool as Fuel Prices Fall