The Federal Reserve begins its December conclave today, with conclusions expected on Wednesday, 10 December 2025. Despite the media dramatization surrounding the meeting, the outcome is largely predetermined: a 25 basis point rate cut that is political rather than economic in nature. Why This Cut Is Not Economically Justified Under classic macroeconomic conditions—barring … [Read more...] about The Federal Reserve’s December Conclave: A Political Cut in a Non-Compliant Macro Environment
inflation
A Scientific Look at PCE, CPI, and Why Inflation Has Not been “Resolved or Moderated” as of Dec 2025
The Problem: Media Claims vs. Actual Data Major outlets, including Yahoo Finance, reported that September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading “showed inflation moderating.” This is presented as evidence that the market is right to expect imminent rate cuts. The issue is simple: the claim is scientifically false when … [Read more...] about A Scientific Look at PCE, CPI, and Why Inflation Has Not been “Resolved or Moderated” as of Dec 2025
Cooling CPI Components potential Further Fed Rate Cut
Cooling CPI Components Strengthen the Case for a Further Fed Rate Cut Overview With the end of the recent government shutdown, official data releases are gradually resuming. The first incoming figures are expected to be weak, but not uniformly negative across all indicators. A key focus remains the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — both for its influence on potential further … [Read more...] about Cooling CPI Components potential Further Fed Rate Cut
CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
The 25bp cut for September is already effective, and today's CPI data will not alter this decision. Markets are already anticipating an additional 25bp cut, with expectations extending beyond September. 1. Positive Aspects 1A. Shelter – Mortgage Rates Drop Mortgage rates fell sharply in August, easing financial conditions for households: … [Read more...] about CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Yesterday, the US financial media came close to ridicule in their commentary on the July 2025 CPI data, attributing the slight increase to the Customs Duties that went into effect in April. A closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Headline CPI Figures CPI all items (Y/Y %): June 2.67 → July 2.70 CPI all items (vs. previous month %): July 2024 +0.12 … [Read more...] about July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025) The latest U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (June 2025) explains why producer prices are still tame, despite a fast-approaching tariff wall, and why the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode. 1 | Trade-Balance Snapshot … [Read more...] about Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)