The 25bp cut for September is already effective, and today's CPI data will not alter this decision. Markets are already anticipating an additional 25bp cut, with expectations extending beyond September. 1. Positive Aspects 1A. Shelter – Mortgage Rates Drop Mortgage rates fell sharply in August, easing financial conditions for households: … [Read more...] about CPI Expectations: No Influence on September 25bp Cut
inflation
July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Yesterday, the US financial media came close to ridicule in their commentary on the July 2025 CPI data, attributing the slight increase to the Customs Duties that went into effect in April. A closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. Headline CPI Figures CPI all items (Y/Y %): June 2.67 → July 2.70 CPI all items (vs. previous month %): July 2024 +0.12 … [Read more...] about July 2025 CPI Report: Reality vs. Media Spin
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)
Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025) The latest U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (June 2025) explains why producer prices are still tame, despite a fast-approaching tariff wall, and why the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode. 1 | Trade-Balance Snapshot … [Read more...] about Front-Loaded Imports Keep Near-Term Inflation in Check — Trade-Balance Deep-Dive (June 2025)