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Mortgage Rates

October Inflation Outlook: Cooling Fuel Prices, Wider Mortgage Spreads and a CPI Base-Effect Trap

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October’s inflation signals are mixed. U.S. gasoline prices have eased from September’s monthly average, and daily mortgage rates have retreated from month-end levels. Yet diesel’s latest weekly increase and still-elevated borrowing costs argue against declaring that inflation pressure has disappeared. There is also an unusual complication for the next CPI report: missing … [Read more...] about October Inflation Outlook: Cooling Fuel Prices, Wider Mortgage Spreads and a CPI Base-Effect Trap

Mortgage Rates, the 30-Year Treasury and the Next Test of Household Income

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The near-term economic picture is fragile. Housing finance is becoming more expensive just as inflation tests the purchasing power of earnings. The next question is whether household income can continue to absorb both pressures. The second monthly report on wages is due next week alongside the Personal Income data, which should confirm the monetary figures from the August … [Read more...] about Mortgage Rates, the 30-Year Treasury and the Next Test of Household Income

September CPI Preview: Energy Prices Rise as Mortgage Costs Squeeze Households

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September 2026 CPI preview: Weekly fuel prices through September 21 point to renewed energy pressure ahead of the official inflation report, even as market sentiment appears optimistic. This is an early warning from pump prices, not a numerical forecast of September CPI. Gasoline prices enter the Consumer Price Index (CPI) directly; diesel can affect the cost of moving goods. … [Read more...] about September CPI Preview: Energy Prices Rise as Mortgage Costs Squeeze Households

August 2026 U.S. Retail Sales: Real Growth Persists, but Fuel Costs Distort the Headline

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August 2026 U.S. retail sales remained positive in real terms, but the headline conceals two important pressures: relative weakness in motor vehicles and the growing share of household spending absorbed by gasoline. The broad figures are encouraging at first glance. Total retail and food-services sales increased by 1.856% year over year in August, while the January–August … [Read more...] about August 2026 U.S. Retail Sales: Real Growth Persists, but Fuel Costs Distort the Headline

The Fed’s Rate Hike May Be Priced In—Oil Will Decide What Comes Next

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The latest 25-basis-point increase may already be largely reflected in Treasury yields, mortgage rates and business borrowing costs. The real question is whether oil-driven inflation will persist and lead markets to price another rate hike—and whether higher rates can do anything about the source of that inflation. The Rate Hike May Already Be Priced In There is little value … [Read more...] about The Fed’s Rate Hike May Be Priced In—Oil Will Decide What Comes Next

August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?

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The August 2026 CPI report could deliver an important contrast: energy and household borrowing costs moved higher during the month, yet a favorable year-over-year comparison may still allow headline inflation to edge lower. The official U.S. Consumer Price Index for August is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. … [Read more...] about August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?

July 2026 CPI Preview: Jobs, Real Wages and Purchasing Power

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The most important July inflation number may not be CPI alone. It will be the purchasing power left in an average weekly paycheck—and whether that improvement is spread across a stable employment base. July's data will arrive in three connected stages. The first will show how many jobs and paid hours supported household income. The second will show how … [Read more...] about July 2026 CPI Preview: Jobs, Real Wages and Purchasing Power

The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said

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The dominant media story was a divided Federal Reserve, three dissents and a chairman offering few answers. That framing misses the substance of the July decision. The Fed held rates steady because commodity-driven inflation, already-restrictive market yields and fragile real purchasing power require more judgment than an automatic rate increase. Much of the post-meeting … [Read more...] about The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said

July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls

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July’s average fuel prices remain below June’s levels, but a sharp late-month rebound in gasoline and diesel complicates the inflation outlook. At the same time, higher mortgage rates continue to restrict housing affordability and household purchasing power. The apparent flatness of the financial markets is also visible in the July 2026 inflation picture. Headline indicators … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls

July 2026 Inflation Monitor: Fuel Prices Ease but Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated

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Data through July 20, 2026: The first three weeks of July indicate that immediate inflationary pressure remains broadly contained, although the renewed rise in retail fuel prices and persistently high mortgage rates require close monitoring. Early July Inflation Overview The first three weeks of July 2026 do not yet point to a significant new acceleration in inflation from … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Monitor: Fuel Prices Ease but Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated

June 2026 Employment Data: Hiring Slows as Real Weekly Earnings Take Center Stage

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A preliminary analysis of the latest BLS employment data suggests that the labor market is slowing, but the final economic impact will depend heavily on real average weekly earnings. A Clear Slowdown in Job Creation The pace of hiring is telling a story about both labor demand and labor supply. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 57,000 in June … [Read more...] about June 2026 Employment Data: Hiring Slows as Real Weekly Earnings Take Center Stage

June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall

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June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices Fall and Mortgage Rates Stabilize Data updated through June 22, 2026 The inflation picture improved during the first three weeks of June. Energy prices declined sharply from May levels, while mortgage rates remained broadly stable. Together, these developments reduce the probability of renewed inflationary pressure entering … [Read more...] about June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall