The dominant media story was a divided Federal Reserve, three dissents and a chairman offering few answers. That framing misses the substance of the July decision. The Fed held rates steady because commodity-driven inflation, already-restrictive market yields and fragile real purchasing power require more judgment than an automatic rate increase. Much of the post-meeting … [Read more...] about The Warsh Fed Gave More Answers Than the Media Admits: What It Communicated and What Markets Said
Mortgage Rates
July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls
July’s average fuel prices remain below June’s levels, but a sharp late-month rebound in gasoline and diesel complicates the inflation outlook. At the same time, higher mortgage rates continue to restrict housing affordability and household purchasing power. The apparent flatness of the financial markets is also visible in the July 2026 inflation picture. Headline indicators … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls
July 2026 Inflation Monitor: Fuel Prices Ease but Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated
Data through July 20, 2026: The first three weeks of July indicate that immediate inflationary pressure remains broadly contained, although the renewed rise in retail fuel prices and persistently high mortgage rates require close monitoring. Early July Inflation Overview The first three weeks of July 2026 do not yet point to a significant new acceleration in inflation from … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Monitor: Fuel Prices Ease but Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated
June 2026 Employment Data: Hiring Slows as Real Weekly Earnings Take Center Stage
A preliminary analysis of the latest BLS employment data suggests that the labor market is slowing, but the final economic impact will depend heavily on real average weekly earnings. A Clear Slowdown in Job Creation The pace of hiring is telling a story about both labor demand and labor supply. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 57,000 in June … [Read more...] about June 2026 Employment Data: Hiring Slows as Real Weekly Earnings Take Center Stage
June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices Fall and Mortgage Rates Stabilize Data updated through June 22, 2026 The inflation picture improved during the first three weeks of June. Energy prices declined sharply from May levels, while mortgage rates remained broadly stable. Together, these developments reduce the probability of renewed inflationary pressure entering … [Read more...] about June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
June 2026 Inflation Signals Cool as Fuel Prices Fall
Inflation Cools in June as Energy Prices Fall, but Structural Risks Remain Economic and market analysis based on data available through June 15, 2026. Early June Inflation Indicators Early June data suggest that some inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, particularly within the energy sector. However, this should … [Read more...] about June 2026 Inflation Signals Cool as Fuel Prices Fall