August 2026 U.S. retail sales remained positive in real terms, but the headline conceals two important pressures: relative weakness in motor vehicles and the growing share of household spending absorbed by gasoline. The broad figures are encouraging at first glance. Total retail and food-services sales increased by 1.856% year over year in August, while the January–August … [Read more...] about August 2026 U.S. Retail Sales: Real Growth Persists, but Fuel Costs Distort the Headline
Gasoline Prices
Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
A September Federal Reserve rate hike is now firmly priced into financial markets, although the FOMC has not yet announced its decision. Short-term Treasury yields have already moved above the Federal Reserve’s current target range, while rate futures indicate a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting. This distinction matters. Higher … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?
The August 2026 CPI report could deliver an important contrast: energy and household borrowing costs moved higher during the month, yet a favorable year-over-year comparison may still allow headline inflation to edge lower. The official U.S. Consumer Price Index for August is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. … [Read more...] about August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?
U.S. Retail Sales July 2026: Real Spending Improves, but Gasoline Demands Caution
July confirmed that U.S. retail spending is recovering in real terms, but the expansion remains narrow. Elevated gasoline spending strengthened the total index without providing the same economic benefit as broader demand for goods and services. Key Takeaways Official seasonally adjusted retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% month on month in July but remained 5.0% … [Read more...] about U.S. Retail Sales July 2026: Real Spending Improves, but Gasoline Demands Caution
July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls
July’s average fuel prices remain below June’s levels, but a sharp late-month rebound in gasoline and diesel complicates the inflation outlook. At the same time, higher mortgage rates continue to restrict housing affordability and household purchasing power. The apparent flatness of the financial markets is also visible in the July 2026 inflation picture. Headline indicators … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Outlook: Energy Eases, Mortgage Rates Rise and Disinflation Stalls
July 2026 Inflation Monitor: Fuel Prices Ease but Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated
Data through July 20, 2026: The first three weeks of July indicate that immediate inflationary pressure remains broadly contained, although the renewed rise in retail fuel prices and persistently high mortgage rates require close monitoring. Early July Inflation Overview The first three weeks of July 2026 do not yet point to a significant new acceleration in inflation from … [Read more...] about July 2026 Inflation Monitor: Fuel Prices Ease but Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated
June 2026 Retail Sales After CPI: Real Consumer Spending Improves
Unadjusted US retail-sales data for June 2026, adjusted using CPI All Items, provides an encouraging indication of recovery in real consumer spending. However, the wider six-month trend remains more moderate than the June result alone suggests. Official June 2026 Retail Sales The US Census Bureau estimated seasonally adjusted retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion … [Read more...] about June 2026 Retail Sales After CPI: Real Consumer Spending Improves
June 2026 Employment Data: Hiring Slows as Real Weekly Earnings Take Center Stage
A preliminary analysis of the latest BLS employment data suggests that the labor market is slowing, but the final economic impact will depend heavily on real average weekly earnings. A Clear Slowdown in Job Creation The pace of hiring is telling a story about both labor demand and labor supply. U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 57,000 in June … [Read more...] about June 2026 Employment Data: Hiring Slows as Real Weekly Earnings Take Center Stage
June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices Fall and Mortgage Rates Stabilize Data updated through June 22, 2026 The inflation picture improved during the first three weeks of June. Energy prices declined sharply from May levels, while mortgage rates remained broadly stable. Together, these developments reduce the probability of renewed inflationary pressure entering … [Read more...] about June CPI Outlook Improves as Energy Prices and Crude Oil Fall
Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
May 2026 retail-sales analysis, with an energy-price update through mid-June 2026 The current retail-sales and consumption picture is not positive. Although headline sales may rise in nominal dollar terms, inflation-adjusted data indicate that consumers are purchasing less in real terms across important parts of the economy. A sustained slowdown in consumption does not affect … [Read more...] about Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
June 2026 Inflation Signals Cool as Fuel Prices Fall
Inflation Cools in June as Energy Prices Fall, but Structural Risks Remain Economic and market analysis based on data available through June 15, 2026. Early June Inflation Indicators Early June data suggest that some inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, particularly within the energy sector. However, this should … [Read more...] about June 2026 Inflation Signals Cool as Fuel Prices Fall