Rising US import prices are putting pressure on business costs across global supply chains. August 2026 data draw attention to nonfuel imports, industrial materials and capital goods, while terms-of-trade comparisons reveal different patterns across Canada, the European Union, Germany, Japan, Latin America, Mexico and China. This analysis examines how supplier prices and … [Read more...] about US Import Prices and Tariffs: Inflation, Capital Goods and Global Trade
U.S. Economy
America Is Aging Out of the Labor Force: What the August 2026 Data Really Shows
America’s population is aging rapidly, and that demographic shift is now plainly visible in the labor-force data. People aged 65 and older represent less than one-quarter of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and over, yet they account for approximately half of all people outside the labor force. This explains a large part of the long-term rise in the … [Read more...] about America Is Aging Out of the Labor Force: What the August 2026 Data Really Shows
Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
A September Federal Reserve rate hike is now firmly priced into financial markets, although the FOMC has not yet announced its decision. Short-term Treasury yields have already moved above the Federal Reserve’s current target range, while rate futures indicate a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting. This distinction matters. Higher … [Read more...] about Fed Rate Hike Is Now Firmly Priced In: CPI, Employment and Treasury Yields Tell a Different Story
Q2 2026 U.S. Productivity Lifts Tech and Profit Outlook
Q2 2026 U.S. productivity data strengthen the structural case for technology, automation and high-value-added production. Output per hour increased across manufacturing, durable goods, the business sector and nonfinancial corporations, while real hourly compensation fell from the first quarter in every sector examined. The most striking signal came from nonfinancial … [Read more...] about Q2 2026 U.S. Productivity Lifts Tech and Profit Outlook
August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?
The August 2026 CPI report could deliver an important contrast: energy and household borrowing costs moved higher during the month, yet a favorable year-over-year comparison may still allow headline inflation to edge lower. The official U.S. Consumer Price Index for August is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. … [Read more...] about August 2026 CPI Preview: Could Inflation Ease Again?
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, July 2026: Shadows and Bright Spots Coexist
U.S. personal income and spending data for July 2026 confirm an economy in which shadows and bright spots are not taking turns—they are coexisting. Real wage growth has weakened, income from assets has lost purchasing power and households have drawn heavily on savings. At the same time, transfer receipts and lower personal taxes are supporting disposable income, while … [Read more...] about U.S. Personal Income and Spending, July 2026: Shadows and Bright Spots Coexist
U.S. Retail Sales July 2026: Real Spending Improves, but Gasoline Demands Caution
July confirmed that U.S. retail spending is recovering in real terms, but the expansion remains narrow. Elevated gasoline spending strengthened the total index without providing the same economic benefit as broader demand for goods and services. Key Takeaways Official seasonally adjusted retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% month on month in July but remained 5.0% … [Read more...] about U.S. Retail Sales July 2026: Real Spending Improves, but Gasoline Demands Caution
July 2026 Employment Report: The Economy’s “Fort Alamo” Moment
July's labor data resemble a last defensive stand: the employment base is weakening, while aggregate real payroll purchasing power remains narrowly positive. Research updated: August 13, 2026 July's employment report is the most important economic report of the month—not because one headline settles the outlook, but because it shows how many people remain … [Read more...] about July 2026 Employment Report: The Economy’s “Fort Alamo” Moment
July 2026 CPI Preview: Jobs, Real Wages and Purchasing Power
The most important July inflation number may not be CPI alone. It will be the purchasing power left in an average weekly paycheck—and whether that improvement is spread across a stable employment base. July's data will arrive in three connected stages. The first will show how many jobs and paid hours supported household income. The second will show how … [Read more...] about July 2026 CPI Preview: Jobs, Real Wages and Purchasing Power
Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand
May 2026 retail-sales analysis, with an energy-price update through mid-June 2026 The current retail-sales and consumption picture is not positive. Although headline sales may rise in nominal dollar terms, inflation-adjusted data indicate that consumers are purchasing less in real terms across important parts of the economy. A sustained slowdown in consumption does not affect … [Read more...] about Retail Sales and Consumption: Energy Costs Continue to Weaken Real Consumer Demand